The US economy is at risk of a recession by 2023 – Goldman Sachs

Key quotes

“Downgrading US GDP forecast in order to reflect higher oil prices, and other drags on growth due to the war with Ukraine.”

“Now, see the danger that the US enters into a recession in the next year.”

“Downgrades forecasts for real GDP growth: +0.5%/+1.5%/+2.5%/+2.5% in 2022Q1-04 vs. +1.0%/+2.5%/+2.5%/+2.0% previously.”

“2022 GDP growth forecast to be +2.9% annually vs. (+3.1% previously) and +1.75% Q4/Q4 vs.+2.0%.”

“Even with these downgrades, there are still risks surrounding our growth forecast. This is especially true if sanctions increase or oil prices rise further. For example, if oil prices reach the $175/bbl target our commodity strategists consider possible, if supply losses exceed 4mb/d.

“Additionally we have not assumed any growth due to metal shortages because–aside form palladium—-only a small portion of US commodity demand can be met by Russian exports.”