In the 2011 documentary Fightville, UFC veteran Tim Credeur is asked to explain the irresistible, near gravitational, pull boxing and mixed martial arts exert on fighters and lifetime fans.
For that question, Credeur had three words.
“Fighting,” he said, “is truth.”
Promoting fights, however, has never been quite so honest.
This week the buzz surrounding a potential showdown between retired boxing megastar Floyd Mayweather and UFC champ Conor McGregor increased in volume and intensity. Media reports citing unnamed sources in McGregor’s native Ireland claimed the fighters had agreed to terms on a boxing match that wouldn’t decide titles, but would generate plenty of attention and revenue.
But the truth is that this proposed cross-sport superbout won’t happen. New reports about negotiations, and social media bickering between the pair are best viewed as cynical publicity stunts, cooked up to generate headlines in the absence of actual events. And the fighters themselves are best viewed as promoters who each realize selling real fights later means hyping a fake one now.
Mayweather became boxing’s pay-per-view best-seller after a mid-career conversion from good-guy Pretty Boy Floyd to a loudmouth heel character nicknamed Money Mayweather. He successfully peddled the idea that the next opponent could hand him the beating he deserved, and closed his career with a six-fight contract with Showtime guaranteeing him $240 million plus lucrative residuals.
A string of domestic assault accusations, along with a conviction in 2011 for hitting his ex-girlfriend, proved Mayweather’s cretin act wasn’t all fabricated. Even if he won’t admit to hitting women, he recognizes the public’s unrequited desire to see him suffer a beating, and the spectre of a McGregor fight appeals to fans who will spend money hoping to see Mayweather lose.
It also provides leverage for McGregor, who is the UFC’s biggest star and who has been angling for bigger paydays since first winning the interim featherweight title in 2015.
McGregor headlined a UFC card in August that generated 1.65 million pay-per-view buys, according to the online database MMAPayout.com. Meanwhile, Mayweather’s best pay-per-view total was the 4.6 million buys for his clash with Manny Pacquiao in 2015.
To narrow that sales gap, McGregor needs a high-profile foil, and if no UFC fighter near his weight class can help boost McGregor’s pay-per-view numbers, the world’s most famous boxer ably fills that role. The longer the act drags on, the more money it makes. Mayweather-Pacquiao shattered records largely because the six-year courtship between the fighters grew each of their audiences.
But where a bitter rivalry between promoters stalled Mayweather-Pacquiao, at least they we both elite pros in the same sport, free to face off after settling contractual details.
The logistical obstacles between McGregor and Mayweather tell you the fight can’t happen.
McGregor is still under contract to the UFC, and can’t fight elsewhere without risking a lawsuit. Though it seems significant that McGregor received a California boxing licence in November, fight licences aren’t difficult to procure.
But finding a commission that will allow a boxer with no pro fights to face a five-division world champion with a 49-0 record is a much stiffer challenge.
It’s likely impossible.
Mayweather, McGregor and the UFC all know it, but they play along to strengthen their respective businesses.
So McGregor calls out Mayweather in interviews.
Mayweather tells media outlets he wants the fight, then posts on Instagram that he’s happily retired with no interest in a comeback.
UFC president Dana White appears on Fox Sports to “offer” Mayweather $25 million for a McGregor fight, as if a fighter used to $40-million guarantees would un-retire to take a pay cut.
He wouldn’t, but sustaining the rumour lets the UFC use Mayweather’s profile to prop up its own biggest star.
Mayweather, meanwhile, gets to make headlines without actually fighting, hoping the attention trickles down to his company, Mayweather Promotions, and its stable of fighters.
Meanwhile the hype keeps coming.
A Las Vegas sports book announced a betting line Thursday on the hypothetical fight, installing Mayweather as a 25-1 favourite. Those odds are generous to McGregor.
Granted, McGregor is 28, and Mayweather turns 40 on Friday. And McGregor now competes at 155 pounds, while Mayweather has never weighed in above 151. So the UFC champ would indeed have an age and size advantage if they boxed.
But Mike Trout would likewise have an edge in age and size against Roger Federer, who would thrash the all-star outfielder in a tennis match. Age and size can’t close a skill gap this big.
This week footage hit the internet of McGregor in boxing gear, sparring with a raw, overmatched hobbyist. McGregor lands several flashy left hands, but flinches from counter punches and absorbs a right to the forehead.
The skill level on display makes clear McGregor would lose decisively to any top-50 pro boxer in his chosen weight class, while an elite fighter would endanger McGregor’s health. A world-class pro would reveal all the flaws in McGregor’s boxing because fighting is truth.
But the hype will continue because Mayweather-McGregor isn’t about fighting.
It’s about promoting fights, and promoting doesn’t promise to be honest.
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