When it comes to Kentucky Derby rankings, this time of year is as wacky and wooly as one of those wild roller-coaster rides at your favorite amusement park.
The peaks are as frequent as the valleys. The penthouse one day, and the outhouse the next.
With that in mind, the latest flavor of the month is McCraken, who was ultra-impressive while winning Saturday’s $250,000 Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in the track-record time of 1:42.45 for the 1 1/16 miles.
The son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper saved ground early and then unleashed a powerful closing rally that carried him to a 1 1/2-length victory under jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who was impressed by the effort.
“He puts a lot of confidence in you, that’s for sure,” Hernandez said.
McCraken, ranked third in our first 2017 Derby rankings Jan. 13, climbed one notch in our latest ratings after he turned in the best performance of any sophomore this year not named Unique Bella. The Tapit filly would surely be included in our rankings, perhaps atop the list, but her connections have indicated recently she’s not being pointed to the Derby.
Without further adieu, our latest top five:
1. Mastery
The Candy Ride colt is still waiting to make his 2017 debut. Trainer Bob Baffert has indicated it will come in either the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 11 or the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 18.
Mastery is unbeaten in three starts. He climaxed his 2-year-old campaign with a resounding 7 1/4-length victory in the Grade I CashCall Futurity at Los Alamitos on Dec. 10, running the 1 1/16 miles in a swift 1:41.56.
Next start: San Felipe or Rebel Stakes.
2. McCraken
Wilkes called an audible, electing to start McCraken in the Sam F. Davis rather than the Swale or Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park a week earlier. He felt his colt’s closing style was more conducive to Tampa Bay Downs.
McCraken’s fourth victory in four starts was his first race away from Churchill Downs, showing he can ship out of state with no problem. That’s a good sign for later in the year when his connections might have the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar in mind.
Next start: Tampa Bay Derby on March 11.
3. Classic Empire
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner drops one notch after his third-place finish in the Holy Bull on Feb. 4. His season debut was marred by a minor foot problem, however, so he gets a pass. We’ll watch him closely next time out.
Remember, many 2-year-old stars have flamed out the next year. Early success does not guarantee future victories, but there are some who still consider Classic Empire the cream of this year’s crop.
Next start: Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 4.
4. Irish War Cry
Was he the beneficiary of a speed-favoring Gulfstream Park main track when he went gate-to-wire to win the Holy Bull by 3 3/4 lengths, or can he rate off speed if the need arises?
The son of Curlin doesn’t figure to have any problems with the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance, and trainer Graham Motion knows what it takes to win on the first Saturday in May, having won the Derby with Animal Kingdom in 2011.
Next start: Fountain of Youth.
5. Gunnevera
Second in the Holy Bull, this son of Dialed In won the Grade III Delta Jackpot on Nov. 19 by 5 3/4 lengths. It’s the same race won by Preakness Stakes and Haskell winner Exaggerator last year.
If Gunnevera takes a step forward in his second start of the year, he’s going to be a fixture in these rankings.
Next start: Fountain of Youth.
On the outside and looking in
American Anthem, Gormley, Uncontested, Practical Joke, Iliad, El Areeb and Lookin At Lee
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