The media will receive more clarity about Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman’s nagging right shoulder problem this morning when the team’s ace speaks to the media for the first time since the injury was announced.
Here’s basically what we know. After feeling discomfort in his throwing shoulder this past offseason, Tillman received a platelet rich plasma injection, which according to manager Buck Showalter put him three weeks behind schedule.
Tillman will not make a fourth consecutive Opening Day start because of it. Even though the Orioles hope to get him back by the end of the season’s first full week, there are many hurdles Tillman has to overcome before that optimism becomes reality.
For both the Orioles and Tillman, there couldn’t be a worse way to open this season.
Tillman has been the club’s workhorse for the past four seasons, averaging 32 starts, 190 innings and 14 wins. Over that span, he ranks 12th among American League starting pitchers with 11.7 wins above replacement (WAR). His 4.1 WAR last season ranked fourth on the team, trailing only Manny Machado (6.7), Zach Britton (4.3) and Kevin Gausman (4.2).
The Orioles had remarkable success when Tillman was on the mound last season, going 22-8 in games he started. The Orioles were just two games above .500 (67-65) in games not started by Tillman.
Tillman served as the Orioles’ stopper, often ending losing streaks with strong starts. Eight of Tillman’s 16 wins came after an Orioles loss.
With this being Tillman’s final season before he can test free agency, he has plenty to gain next offseason if he can maintain the consistency he has had the past four seasons.
Tillman won 14 of his first 16 decisions last year, going 14-2 with a 3.18 ERA over his first 21 starts. He ended that by posting a 1.29 ERA during a four-start span in which he allowed just four earned runs over 28 innings.
But after Tillman’s fourth straight seven-inning, one-run start on July 21 at Yankee Stadium, something went awry. He posted a 5.44 ERA over his final nine starts of the season and missed three weeks with shoulder soreness that landed him on the disabled list for the first time since 2013. Tillman allowed a .291 batting average and an .841 OPS during that season-ending stretch.
After going at least six innings in 14 of his first 21 starts, Tillman lasted that many in just three of his final nine starts, a span that included two starts in which he failed to get through three innings.
After seeing success with his four-seam fastball (.207 opponents’ batting average) and changeup (.192 OBA) through his first 21 starts, Tillman saw opposing hitters bat .360 off his four-seamer and .340 off his changeup over his final nine starts.
Tillman posted a 3.79 ERA over his final four starts after coming off the disabled list, but he definitely wasn’t the same pitcher as in the first half of the season. And now, as his shoulder problems linger, there’s undoubtedly concern about a carryover.
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