The Arizona Coyotes and Colorado Avalanche are not making the playoffs, so all trade speculation starts with them. It also looks as if Detroit’s run of seasons with consecutive playoff appearances will end at 25. Dallas and Winnipeg, like Detroit, are under .500 from a points percentage and teams above them have games in hand, meaning they too are likely out. Also obvious are the teams that are making the playoffs: Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Montreal and the New York Rangers in the East; San Jose, Anaheim, Edmonton, Minnesota and Chicago in the West. It would take a collapse of monumental proportions — and, hey, the Canadiens have that in them — for these teams to miss. As things stand, they’re each given a 90-per-cent chance or better of making the playoffs based on their seasons so far, according to SportsClubStats, which analyzes the schedule so far and the schedule to come and puts it all together. The rest is not so obvious. Here’s a look at the playoff races in the East and West, with the East far closer than the West (percentages courtesy SportsClubStats.com through Monday’s games):
EASTERN CONFERENCE
OTTAWA SENATORS
Second in Atlantic with 64 points
GAMES REMAINING: 29
TREND: Ottawa has excellent goaltending with Craig Anderson (2.34 GAA, .927 save percentage). Guy Boucher is proving his worth in his second go-round as an NHL coach. The Senators are solid up the middle and have a game-breaker in Erik Karlsson on defence. Their core is the right age to peak.
ISSUE: The Senators are struggling at the gate and ownership may not be willing to pay what it takes to add talent at the trade deadline.
CHANCES: 84.1 per cent
BOSTON BRUINS
Third in Atlantic with 64 points
GAMES REMAINING: 24
TREND: The Bruins are performing well for their new coach, and have an intriguing blend of youth and experience. Tuukka Rask is proven performer in net . . . Brad Marchand having a terrific year with 24 goals.
ISSUE: They’ve played more games than anyone else in the hunt and don’t have a points cushion to protect themselves in case a pursuer gets hot. They have to get more than a bump from a new coach to ride out the rest of the season.
CHANCES: 54.6 per cent
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Fourth in Atlantic, second wild card with 61 points
GAMES REMAINING: 28
TREND:They’ve been bumbling about since the all-star break, not looking at all like the team they were in December and early January . . . Mike Babcock is a superb motivator and would deserve the credit if this team overachieves in what is really Year One of the build . . . It helps to have the league’s second-ranked power play and ninth-ranked penalty kill.
ISSUE: They are a young team with very little experience in playoffs drives. The players with that experience haven’t done so well with it.
CHANCES: 67.4 per cent
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Fifth in Metropolitan with 61 points
GAMES REMAINING: 26
TREND: They’re bad on the road (10-13-3) and play 15 of the remaining 26 away . . . Goaltenders Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth have combined for a 2.87 goals-against average and .897 save percentage. Not good enough . . . They are 6-8-1 in their own division with a steady diet of Metropolitan teams lined up.
ISSUE: The Flyers shouldn’t be on this list, but they went 17-6-4 run starting Valentine’s Day last year that enabled them to inch into the playoffs. They need at least 15 wins to give themselves a 50 per cent chance.
CHANCES: 7.9 per cent
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Sixth in Metropolitan with 60 points
GAMES REMAINING: 28
TREND: New coach Doug Weight has awoken a team that had underachieved under Jack Capuano . . . The Islanders have been playoff regulars lately with captain John Tavares carrying the team on his shoulders.
ISSUE: Thomas Greiss has been fantastic since getting the No. 1 job in net (17-9-5, 2.42, .922) but the career backup doesn’t have a track record.
CHANCES: 45.1 per cent
FLORIDA PANTHERS
STANDINGS: Fifth in Atlantic with 58 points
GAMES REMAINING: 28
TREND: The Panthers are finally healthy, with Jonathan Huberdeau back from an Achilles tendon injury and reunited with linemates Aleksander Barkov and Jaromir Jagr. They’re target is third place in the Atlantic. They are six points behind Boston, with four games in hand.
ISSUE: Team defence is an issue . . . Goalie Roberto Luongo has allowed 25 goals in his past seven outings . . . Their 17-14-6 record against Eastern Conference teams doesn’t bode well.
CHANCES: 12.4 per cent
Tampa Bay Lightning
Sixth in Atlantic with 57 points
GAMES REMAINING: 26
TREND: Fighting for their playoff lives, the Lightning had won three of four — playing some of its best hockey — then hit its bye-week. Teams coming out of the bye week haven’t fared so well, a combined 15-22-3 in their first five after a bye, according to tampabay.com. They are 9-5-3 within the division, giving them reason to think they can catch Boston and/or Toronto.
ISSUE: Injuries have been a problem all year, with Steve Stamkos out since Nov. 15 . . . The goaltending of Ben Bishop (14-12-4. 2.63, .910) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (11-12-6, 2.76, .911) has not been as good as anticipated.
CHANCES: 11.5 per cent
New Jersey Devils
Seventh in Metropolitan with 56 points
GAMES REMAINING: 27
TREND: They have done well in make-or-break situations, posting 3-0-1 records twice to rebound from bad stretches . . . They believe they have their destiny in their own hands, facing teams above them in the standings . . . They have trouble scoring, and keeping the puck out of the net.
ISSUE: The second wild-card is all they can hope for, but it’s five points away and they have to climb over the Islanders, Flyers and Leafs to get there. The Leafs and Islanders have games in hand.
CHANCES: 2.3 per cent
BUFFALO SABRES
Seventh in Atlantic with 56 points
GAMES REMAINING: 26
TREND: They’re over their injury problems, but haven’t been able to get on a roll. Coach Dan Byslma may be on the hot-seat as a result. They may be wiser to trade the likes of Brian Gionta or Matt Moulson at the deadline for younger players to fit in with Jack Eichel.
ISSUE: A 13-17-8 record against teams from the East has hurt the Sabres. And conference play is on the menu. … The league’s second-worst penalty kill.
CHANCES: 4.7 per cent
Carolina Hurricanes
Eighth in Metropolitan with 55 points
GAMES REMAINING: 29
TREND: They’re a last-place team but have played fewer games than anyone and have gone on hot streaks before . . . They’re defence is solid with Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin, but goaltending is suspect (Cam Ward: 21-17-8, 2.62, .905.) . . . Decent offence from rookie Sebastien Aho (17 goals) and Jeff Skinner (18 goals).
ISSUE: The Canes are 7-16-6 on the road, but thankfully only have 12 games left on the road, 17 at home where they are 17-6-1. Two of those home games are against Toronto — the team they’re chasing for the second wild-card. They’ve owned the Leafs.
CHANCES: 13.1 per cent
WESTERN CONFERENCE
St. Louis Blues
Third in Central with 63 points
GAMES REMAINING: 26
TREND: Another spot where a new coach (Mike Yeo) has breathed new life. The Blues are 5-1-0 since he took over from Ken Hitchcock. Goaltending has also made a turn for the better . . . Jake Allen is 3-0 under Yeo, with a 1.00 GAA and .967 save percentage.
ISSUE: Dominant at home (17-9-4) good enough on the road (12-13-1) is a recipe for success. Good special teams: Penalty kill is ranked fifth, power play seventh.
CHANCES: 93.2 per cent
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Fourth in Central, first wild card with 62 points
GAMES REMAINING: 26
TREND: Their top four defencemen — Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis — are finally all healthy at the same time . . . They’ve picked up points in 11 of their last 16 games.
ISSUE: The Preds play 26 games in 50 days in their sprint to the finish, needing at least 15 wins. They’ll need to break out of their win-one, lose-one format.
CHANCES: 80.8 per cent
LOS ANGELES KINGS
Fourth in Pacific, second wild card with 60 points
GAMES REMAINING: 27
TREND: They are 6-2-0 in their last eight. They face teams ahead of them in the standings only 10 times the rest of the way. They are 15-8-1 at home and have 18 favourable home dates remaining . . . Jeff Carter has 29 goals . . . Kings will add at the trade deadline.
ISSUE: The Kings have done all right considering they’ve been without their top goalie, Jonathan Quick, all year. He should be back in March.
CHANCES: 87.4 per cent
CALGARY FLAMES
Fifth in Pacific with 59 points
GAMES REMAINING: 25
TREND: A promising 3-1-0 stretch including massive victories over the Pittsburgh Penguins and Minnesota Wild came to a halt with the mandatory break and a 5-0 loss to Arizona coming out of it . . . Matthew Tkachuk is having a splendid rookie campaign . . . Sam Bennett (minus-10) has yet to show his potential.
ISSUE: They’re 4-2-0 over their last six, relatively healthy and don’t face a top-tier opponent until March 9 (at home to Montreal) . . . Goalie Brian Elliott has been better lately, winning eight of his last 12.
CHANCES: 30.1 per cent
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Sixth in Pacific with 56 points
GAMES REMAINING: 27
TREND: Two things tend to trend in Vancouver: #TeamTank and #TeamPlayoffs. They can’t be both, but sometimes that’s exactly what they seem. The team believes they’re good enough to make the playoffs. Few others.
ISSUE: Their core of Henrik and Daniel Sedin and goalie Ryan Miller are well past their best-before date . . . Their youth in Jake Virtanen and Troy Stetcher have a ways to go.
CHANCES: 7.1 per cent
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