Below are the top 30 of ESPN’s College BPI rankings as of Monday. For an explanation of BPI and how it works, please read this article.
In summary, college BPI is a forward-looking power rating designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. In the simplest terms, BPI answers the question, “If two teams met on a neutral court, which one would win, and by how many points?”
Each team’s rating represents its projected point differential against an average Division I team on a neutral court with equal days of rest and travel distance. Subtracting any two teams’ ratings equates to a predicted point margin between those teams (all else equal). BPI looks beyond a team’s win-loss record to determine the strongest teams based on how they won their games, whom those wins came against and where they came. Movement in the rankings depends more on how teams perform relative to prior expectation rather than winning or losing.
ESPN’s Strength of Record (SOR) ratings, on the other hand, measures team accomplishment by ranking teams based on how difficult their win-loss record was to achieve. To view full SOR ratings, full BPI ratings and other ESPN College Basketball metrics visit www.espn.com/bpi.
On to the BPI top 30 …
– With their toughest test now behind them, the Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 4 in BPI) have a 91 percent chance of being 30-0 when the West Coast Conference tournament begins in a couple of weeks. The Bulldogs have the most impressive résumé according to ESPN’s Strength of Record (SOR) and are also the biggest movers in the BPI top 30, up four spots in the last week as they continue to exceed expectations in each of their games.
The Bulldogs’ toughest game remaining is their season finale against BYU (No. 68 in BPI), where they are favored to win by 23 points, according to BPI.
– Villanova is No. 1 in BPI, but the Wildcats were bumped from the top spot for several days last week by Virginia (No. 2 in BPI). The Cavaliers’ dominance of Louisville (No. 5 in BPI) moved them into the top spot, but after Virginia’s double-overtime loss to Virginia Tech (No. 48 in BPI), Villanova returned to the top of the BPI ladder.
– The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee announced, for the first time, seeding during the season for the top 16 teams. While BPI measures the strongest teams, Strength of Record (SOR) measures accomplishment and aligns more closely with the selection committee’s rankings.
Although the top four teams in SOR match exactly the teams announced by the selection committee, there were some glaring differences between SOR and the committee’s rankings. Despite losing to Northwestern (No. 38 in BPI) on Sunday, Wisconsin has the seventh-most impressive record, yet is nowhere to be found in the committee’s top 16. In the other direction, Oregon received a No. 2 seed, yet its résumé is the 19th-best, according to SOR.
– According to BPI, Kansas (No. 10 in BPI) has an 81.6 percent chance to win at least a share of the Big 12 title, which would be the Jayhawks’ 13th consecutive conference championship. The Jayhawks have had an impressive run in conference play, as BPI gave them only a 32.8 percent chance of winning a share of the title on Jan. 1 as conference play was beginning.
The top threat to the Jayhawks is Baylor (No. 14 in BPI), where Bill Self’s team will play Saturday, playing their final scheduled game as a BPI underdog.
– The top game of the week according to ESPN’s matchup quality metric is Virginia (No. 2 in BPI) at North Carolina (No. 7 in BPI) at 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN/WatchESPN.
The ACC regular-season title is up for grabs, and North Carolina is the current favorite with a 52.7 percent chance of taking home at least a share of the title. The Cavaliers currently are the second-most likely team to win the ACC with a 41.1 percent chance but would be the favorite should they win in Chapel Hill on Saturday.
For more analytics content, visit www.espn.com/analytics.
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