WASHINGTON — You might think Ohio Republicans would be satisfied with a 3-1 majority in U.S. House of Representatives seats after a partisan redistricting process in 2011 helped them stack the deck against Democrats.
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But Columbus-area Republican Rep. Steve Stivers, the newly elected chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, is targeting the Niles-area district of Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan as one of 36 seats nationally that could switch from blue to red.
On Wednesday, Stivers released a list of seats “held by Democrats that are out of touch with their districts” that his group will target in the 2018 election.
“The success of our government depends on Republicans maintaining a strong majority in the House,” said a statement from Stivers. “Our strategy will allow us to be competitive in races throughout the country and achieve our overall goal of keeping Republicans in control of the House.”
NRCC spokesman Chris Pack says Hillary Clinton won Ryan’s district last year with just 51 percent of the vote, and its demographics helped Donald Trump run 21 percent ahead of the last two GOP presidential nominees.
“Tim Ryan’s’ inability to shift his party away from liberal coastal elites to issues that actually matter to Northeast Ohio is evidence of his ineffectiveness in Congress,” said Pack. “But, the numbers speak for themselves. There is a clear realignment occurring all along the rust belt and Tim Ryan is ground zero for that movement.”
Ryan spokesman Michael Zetts disputed the NRCC’s take on the district, saying his boss will continue to take his re-election efforts seriously, “regardless of how much money the national Republican Party and outside 3rd-party interest groups dump into his race to defeat him.”
“Congressman Ryan will continue to be an independent voice for his district,” Zetts continued. “He looks forward to discussing his record of focusing on the working class issues that are so important to families in Ohio, and he welcomes any debate on how we can make life better for the citizens of our area and how we can create more high paying jobs.”
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Ryan is frequently cited as a potential Democratic candidate for statewide offices, such as governor.
Most political analysts list Ryan’s seat as safely Democratic because Republicans packed it with Democrats to improve their chances to win elsewhere. His district includes parts of Mahoning, Trumbull, Summit, Portage and Stark Counties. Last year, Ryan won 68 percent of the vote against Republican challenger Richard Morckel.
Of the counties in Ryan’s district, Trump won all but Mahoning.
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After last year’s election, Ryan ran for House Democratic leader against incumbent Nancy Pelosi, arguing he could reverse the party’s fortunes because of his appeal to sort of blue-collar voters who backed Trump.
Could those voters help Republicans win the seat, particularly if Ryan abandons it to pursue a higher office, such as governor? Or will voters turned off by the new president’s policies cost his party congressional seats in the midterm elections – as usually happens – and erode the GOP majority Stivers wants to protect?
That’s the battle heating up.
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