Below are the top 30 of ESPN’s College BPI rankings as of Monday. For an explanation of BPI and how it works, please read this article.
In summary, college BPI is a forward-looking power rating designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. In the simplest terms, BPI answers the question, “If two teams met on a neutral court, which one would win, and by how many points?”
Each team’s rating represents its projected point differential against an average Division I team on a neutral court with equal days rest and travel distance. Subtracting any two teams’ ratings equates to a predicted point margin between those teams (all else equal). BPI looks beyond a team’s win-loss record to determine the strongest teams based on how they won their games, whom those wins came against and where they came. Movement in the rankings depends more on how teams perform relative to prior expectation rather than winning or losing.
ESPN’s Strength of Record (SOR) ratings, on the other hand, measures team accomplishment by ranking teams based on how difficult their W-L record was to achieve. To view full SOR ratings, full BPI ratings, and other ESPN College Basketball metrics visit www.espn.com/bpi.
On to the BPI top 30 …
-Villanova remains No. 1 overall in BPI and also assumes the top spot in Strength of Record (SOR). This is the first time all season that both of ESPN’s metrics have deemed the same team to be simultaneously both the best (BPI) and the most deserving (SOR).
-Upheaval at the top of the Big 12? While the weekend saw several upsets, most notably in the Big 12 where Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all lost at home to teams not ranked in the AP top 25. BPI tells a different story. Going into the week, teams in the BPI top 30 were expected to win 40.9 games and lose 16.1 games. After all was said and done, teams in the BPI top 30 last week finished 41-16. While those three specific Big 12 teams losing on Saturday was surprising (Kansas was an 84 percent favorite according to BPI), overall the amount of drama we saw last week nationwide was what you would typically expect to see with that slate of games.
-The ACC continues to dominate the top of the rankings with four teams in the top eight of BPI. Virginia (No. 2 in BPI) and Louisville (No. 3 in BPI) both rose a spot thanks to West Virginia’s poor performance on Saturday. Duke (No. 7 in BPI) and UNC (No. 6 in BPI) both fell a spot, due largely to Florida (No. 5 in BPI) leapfrogging them both after their dominating victory over Kentucky (No. 10 in BPI). The Tar Heels and the Blue Devils meet this week in Durham (Thursday 8:00 PM ET on ESPN), where BPI favors Coach K’s team in a tight contest due to home court advantage.
-Selection Sunday is just five weeks away and according to SOR the teams currently deserving of a #1 seed are Villanova, Gonzaga, Baylor, and Kansas. SOR’s number 1 seeds, which are based on how impressive a team’s W-L record is, matches ESPN’s Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi. All but Gonzaga have played one of the 25 most difficult schedules according to BPI, with three or fewer losses to show for it. Wisconsin (No. 5 in SOR and No. 13 in BPI) is the next most deserving of a No. 1 seed. The Badgers also have just 3 losses but have played the 32nd most difficult schedule, behind Baylor and Kansas who also have three losses but have played the 15th and 16th hardest schedules to date respectively.
-The top game of the week according to ESPN’s matchup quality metric is undefeated Gonzaga (No. 8 in BPI) at Saint Mary’s (No. 15 in BPI) Saturday at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN. Gonzaga took care of BYU (No. 67 in BPI) last week, winning what was their second hardest remaining scheduled game and now plays as a BPI underdog for the third and final time this regular season against Saint Mary’s. If the Zags get through this week unscathed, BPI gives them an 88.8 percent chance to finish the regular season undefeated. Gonzaga’s unblemished record seems to be overshadowing Saint Mary’s phenomenal season. The Gaels are having arguably its strongest regular season ever with its current Offensive BPI rating of 10.9 and its overall BPI of 14.9 both the highest in its history (BPI goes back to the 2007-08 season).
For more analytics content visit www.espn.com/analytics.
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