HOUSTON — We marvel at what Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have accomplished together as they hunt their record fifth Super Bowl championship together, so much so that there seems to be this notion the Falcons will be trying to pull off a bigger upset than Jets over Colts in Super Bowl III.
We have talked so much about this game marking the end of Brady’s Deflategate Revenge Tour that we sometimes forget Matt Ryan played the quarterback position over 18 games better than anyone else.
They say that Defense Wins Championships, and though the Patriots boast the No. 1 scoring defense in the league, we are not talking about the 1985 Bears here, or the ’86 Giants, or the 2000 Ravens.
Though it is true Belichick deflated The Greatest Show on Turf in Super Bowl XXXVI, and the Jim Kelly Bills in Super Bowl XXV as Bill Parcells’ defensive coordinator, this is another offense that will demand every ounce of genius from him.
How the Falcons can pull off the upset:
This is Ryan’s chance to shed the Big Game Monkey on his back once and for all. Mark Rypien threw for 292 yards and two touchdowns to win MVP honors in his Super Bowl debut, and there is no reason to expect a Matty Ice meltdown here. His chemistry with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan isn’t that far from Tom Brady’s with Josh McDaniel.
“They call him Matty Ice for a reason, he has ice in his veins, so I don’t think this stage is going to shake him one bit, I think he’s going to relish the moment,” former Giants cornerback Prince Amukamara said.
Belichick won’t stop Julio Jones because no one stops Julio Jones. But he will not allow him to wreck the game. Jones’ mere presence will open things up for 6-foot-2 Mohamed Sanu, or blazer Taylor Gabriel, or Devonta Freeman, or explosive Tevin Coleman.
“Those secondary guys I believe are going to have to make plays and win this game for them if they’re going to win,” NFL Network’s Kurt Warner said. “I don’t think Bill will let Julio do it, I don’t think he’s going to let the backs do it if he can help it.”
Freeman and Coleman are pass-catching threats who present matchup problems for the New England linebackers and safeties.
“The Falcons are going to have to try to run the ball to that side that Julio’s being doubled because now you’re light in the box,” NFL Network’s Deion Sanders said. “They’re going to have to be successful running the ball. And the other ancillary players, they’re going to have to show up, and they’re going to have to show up big.”
Ryan and Shanahan have to target him at least 10 times. Period.
“Kyle Shanahan does a great job moving him around,” NFL Network’s Shaun O’Hara said. “You can’t double-team [Jones] when you put him in motion in a trips formation, and now all of a sudden he’s running behind two receivers.”
The Patriots own the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL.
“When you look at their entire schedule, it wasn’t week after week against a Pro Bowl kind of quarterback,” NFL Network’s Steve Mariucci said. “So they’re really going to be tested.”
The Falcons won’t beat Brady kicking field goals. Dan Quinn must not be afraid to be the riverboat gambler on fourth-and-3 or shorter in the red zone.
“I think they’re going to score 24-plus points,” Mariucci said.
The Patriots have made a living feasting on turnovers. The Falcons (22 takeaways, 11 giveaways) are excellent at ball security.
“If they don’t turn the ball over,” Sanders said, “they’re going to win.”
Brady can’t be expected to throw two interceptions as he did against the Texans. The Patriots (23 takeaways, 11 giveaways) are also excellent at ball security. Only four teams allowed more yards per carry than the Falcons (4.5). Which means LeGarrette Blount could be a significant weapon to allow Brady to keep Ryan off the field. And Dion Lewis and James White are matchup problems out of the backfield.
“If [the Falcons] can create at least one or two turnovers on defense, give their offense a couple of extra possessions,” O’Hara said, “I think they win the game.”
Four rookies start on the Atlanta defense.
“They’re really good at attacking the football,” O’Hara said. “Getting the ball out after the catch, or on the running backs, that’s something that they really do a good job of.”
It’s all about the Brotherhood.
“They always seem to have three and four people around the ball,” NFL Network’s LaDainian Tomlinson said, “and that’s how you create turnovers.”
Ryan has engineered an opening-drive touchdown in eight consecutive games. The Falcons do not want to start pressing if they fall behind.
The Patriots rarely surrender the big play (17 times allowing a play of at least 30 yards). Ryan will have to matriculate the ball down the field more than usual.
First-round pick draft Keanu Neal should deliver a Kam Chancellor-esque blow on receivers crossing over the middle. Remember how Chancellor blew up Demaryius Thomas in Supe XLVIII?
The Falcons do not have the pass rushers the Super Bowl XLII and XLVI Giants did, and sack champ Vic Beasley won’t have a Von Miller night against Marcus Cannon, who hasn’t allowed a Brady sack in 13 games.
“You got to get pressure off the edge, force him to step up and your guys in the middle have to be really good,” ex-Giant Osi Umenyiora said. “We would rush on the outside, force him to step up and Tuck was right there creating havoc.”
The Falcons, however, do not have a Justin Tuck. They should not be afraid to send Deion Jones or Brian Poole at Brady.
It won’t be easy. But it can be done.
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