There are many angles to consider in this most interesting Super Bowl LI matchup between the Falcons and Patriots, so let’s take them one at a time:
The big talk: The Falcons aren’t disrespecting the Patriots directly, as Mike Tomlin did when he called them “those a–holes” on Antonio Brown’s infamous Facebook Live broadcast, or as Greg Hardy did in 2015 when he called out Tom Brady’s wife Gisele Bundchen and her sister. Now those unfortunate mistakes for the Steelers and Cowboys resulted in Patriot routs.
Still, Atlanta-backers have to be a little uncomfortable hearing Julio Jones say he can’t be covered one-on-one, and Devonta Freeman boast the Falcons’ offense can’t be stopped. Certainly there’s some fodder in those words for Bill Belichick and the coolest-looking defensive coordinator of all time, Matt Patricia.
But not everything that ends up on the Patriots’ bulletin board leads them to victory, as the Giants proved at Super Bowl XLII when they arrived en masse in Arizona dressed in black for the funeral of New England’s perfect season, then won by three as 12-point underdogs.
Jones and Freeman are talking up the Falcons offense because it’s damn good — it’s ranked first in points, second in yardage and has put up 42, 41, 33, 38, 36 and 44 points during this six-game winning streak.
The Patriots were No. 1 in fewest points allowed despite being eighth in yardage yielded. They have given up as many as 20 points only once in their current nine-game winning streak, most recently dismantling a Steelers offense that had looked unstoppable.
But Belichick and Patricia are not magicians. They can choose which weapon to take away from an offense — maybe two — but this Falcons attack is vast and diverse.
The Quinn factor: Yes, it’s Dan Quinn’s first Super Bowl as a head coach compared to Belichick’s seventh, but Quinn does have plenty of recent Super Bowl experience as the Seahawks’ defensive coordinator.
If “Do Your Job” is the Patriots’ mantra, Quinn certainly did his three years ago at MetLife Stadium when his Legion of Doom defense destroyed Peyton Manning and the Broncos, 43-8, in Super Bowl XLVIII.
As impressive as that was, Quinn may have gotten more out of Seattle’s 28-24 loss to the Patriots the next season. He likely would have another ring if Pete Carroll had called for a handoff to Marshawn Lynch at the end. Though much of the Patriots’ starting lineup is different (and his own defense is no Legion of Boom), Quinn has had experience preparing for two weeks to face Brady, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and LeGarrette Blount, and has seen their go-to moves at crunch time. Belichick and his assistants have gone up against Quinn, but not the Falcons, which gives Atlanta a bit of an edge.
Super-close calls: The Patriots’ four Super Bowl wins have been by three, three, three and four points. The Patriots were 14-point underdogs against the Rams, and outperformed the spread by 17 points. But in their subsequent five Super Bowl appearances, they have underperformed the spread by 25¹/₂ points, an average of more than five points per game. If that holds, it computes to a very narrow Falcons win.
The conditions: The dry conditions (the roof is expected to be closed because of rain in the Sunday forecast) seem to favor the Falcons because of their speed.
Loserville: True, Atlanta has only the Braves’ 1995 World Series title show for its Big Four sports history, which includes the Braves and Falcons since 1966, the Hawks since 1968, and two different NHL franchises. But this is an era in which lost causes have been redeemed — starting with drought-ending Patriots themselves, and continuing with the Red Sox, Warriors, Cavaliers and most recently the Cubs.
How it’ll go: Belichick and Quinn are both defensive big shots, but it’s hard to imagine anything other than a shootout here. The Falcons have so many ways to move the ball and have such speed everywhere in Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel and even Mohamed Sanu, that it will be tough for the Patriots to keep up with them all. And if they take any focus away from Jones, he can hit the home-run ball at any time.
Also don’t expect the Falcons defense to be able to shut down Brady and his machine too often, although Quinn surely will have someone covering Chris Hogan (imagine that, Steelers!).
So the scoreboard lights will be flickering like a telethon tote board and will end up looking like this:
Falcons 33, Patriots 30
Championship weekend: 1-1 versus the spread, 0-2 Over/Unders.
Lock of the week: Finishes 2016 season 9-11.
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