CLEVELAND, Ohio – Science shows that we’re in for a warmer-than-normal February, regardless of whether the groundhog sees its shadow today.
This year’s La Nina, which normally induces cooler and wetter conditions for the winter, has been noticeably weak. Both December and January had warmer-than-average temperatures. And it looks the next six weeks we’ll keep the pattern, with above normal temperatures and precipitation.
That’s especially since conditions in the Pacific are forecasted to go back to neutral this month, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
For the month of February, NOAA has placed Ohio in a region of a 33 to 40 percent elevated chance of above average temperatures, and a 33 to 40 percent elevated chance of above normal precipitation too.
Chances of above or below average temperatures for February.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chances of above or below average precipitation for February.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
For Cleveland, February’s average temperature is 30.5 degrees, and normal precipitation is 2.34 inches, counting both rainfall and liquid equivalent of snow, roughly a 10:1 ratio.
With warmer temperatures, we’re looking at more rain than snow.
These conditions are expected to trickle into early March.
So, whether or not winter will last another six weeks depends on your definition of winter. If winter is your typical snow and cold, then you’re looking at an early end. But, if you think temperatures in the mid-30s with days of both rain and light snow constitutes winter weather, then winter is definitely not over.
Whatever Punxsatawney Phil and Buckeye Chuck predict.
Keep checking cleveland.com/weather for daily weather updates for Northeast Ohio, and don’t forget to submit any weather questions you may have!
Kelly Reardon is cleveland.com’s meteorologist. Please follow me on Facebook and Twitter @kreardon0818.
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