The Atlanta Fed recently upgraded its GDP growth forecast for the second quarter of 2021 to 2.0%, up from the previous estimate of 1.5% on July 3. This positive revision comes after a series of declines in the forecast. According to the GDPNow model, the estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter has increased to 2.0% as of July 10.
The upward revision can be attributed to the latest economic data, including the employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau. Following these reports, the nowcasts for second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth also saw an increase. The estimates rose from 1.1% to 1.5% and from 6.5% to 7.6%, respectively.
The next update on the GDPNow forecast is scheduled for Tuesday, July 16. This adjustment indicates a more optimistic outlook for the economy in the second quarter of 2021. With the recent data pointing towards stronger growth in personal consumption and private domestic investment, there is potential for a more robust economic performance than previously anticipated.
It is worth noting that economic forecasts are subject to change based on new information and data releases. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model provides a real-time snapshot of the economy and helps policymakers, businesses, and individuals make informed decisions. As we await the next update on July 16, all eyes will be on how the economy continues to evolve in the coming weeks.