The real stories of the next election will unfold in the regions of Quebec.
To get a more accurate portrait of regional battles, I compiled the five Léger polls published in 2022 in Le Journal.
We see political movements in the making.
The Quebec consensus
Let’s start with the obvious. The domination of the CAQ is dizzying.
Both nationally and regionally, Quebecers are deeply satisfied with the Legault government.
There is a broad consensus in Quebec.
A consensus behind the personality of François Legault, appreciated even outside the borders of the CAQ, and then on the nationalist positions of his government.
It’s quite phenomenal: in Lanaudière, the CAQ unites 57% of voters. In the Laurentians, we are at 52%. In Montérégie, 48%.
In all regions, the CAQ exceeds 40%, even if five parties divide the vote.
Montreal
One exception: Montreal.
In recent weeks, Dominique Anglade’s PLQ has returned to its first lands, making the challenge to Law 96 its own.
The PLQ saves these last pieces of furniture from a house that Quebecers have largely left.
Profitable strategy: the PLQ is ahead in Montreal with 36% of the vote, ahead of the CAQ at 27% and QS at 15%.
Montreal is now divided into three blocks.
East of Montreal, from Pointe-aux-Trembles to Anjou, is the first. These Montrealers increasingly have a suburban profile and are likely to turn to the CAQ next October.
The orange metro line is the second block. These voters are French-speaking, progressive and very sensitive to the ecological question.
They are former PQ members, now in solidarity, and young voters who are also inclined towards QS.
There remains the West of Montreal, liberal since always. And who will remain. The danger for the PLQ is not competition, but the abstention of its voters.
PCQ
Éric Duhaime is the unpredictable variable in Quebec politics.
The PCQ would be a regional epiphenomenon, it is often said, present where Radio X prevailed.
It’s incomplete.
Where Éric Duhaime’s PCQ garners the most support is in Chaudière-Appalaches, where it has 27% of voters. Like a spreading oil stain, his vote is slowly heading towards Centre-du-Québec, where it is now 18%.
Two phenomena are at work here.
Duhaime rebuilt the Adquist strongholds of the past.
He occupies the political vacuum on the right, attracting anti-system and anti-state voters to him.
We could also trace the support of the federal conservatives to Duhaime.
If Pierre Poilievre were to be elected leader of the Conservative Party, the relationship between the two would be formalized.
He would speak to the same voters, in the same places and above all in the same way.
PQ, QS
Let’s end on QS and the PQ.
The PQ is marginalized, except in Bas-Saint-Laurent, where it can save its honor.
QS is confined to certain specific neighborhoods, where universities are often located.
In Montreal, it is only 15%. In Quebec, it is 13%. The party is neither growing nor descending. It just seems to have hit a ceiling.
Today, less than one in four Quebecers would vote for a progressive party.
Sooner or later, PQ and solidarity voters, who have learned to hate each other, will have to talk to each other again.
It is inevitable and mathematical, if they hope one day to get out of their respective marginality.
Source: compilation of Léger polls published in Le Journal de Montréal since the beginning of the year.
