experienced falls, The German shares in the past two weeks, massive Course. Experts estimate that the value of all the stock market fell and listed German companies, to almost 40 billion euros. DAX 10.743,83 PTS. -798,04 (-6,91%) Xetra
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to go To the course data
But the economic impact of the Corona-crisis and much more. You affect not only shareholders, but ultimately every citizen. “The risks of a global pandemic show, among other things, the slump in the price of Oil “, writes Commerzbank Research 9. March. What might sound attractive to some motorists, shows that The world economy is in the midst of a massive crisis.
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The trading nation, Germany is particularly affected
This is also the view of Germany. Star Economist Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for economic research (DIW), warned at the weekend against the possible consequences of the Corona-Virus for the German economy:
“supply chains are already under threat, and greater problems will be inevitable, so that the production processes and thus the economic performance will suffer,” said Fratzscher. He feared especially for Germany, negative consequences “For the economy in this country is from the trade-dependent than most of the other European countries,” the renowned Economist.
more and more signs of the Crisis
Currently there is a barrage of negative news. German companies in Russia to be feared because of the Corona epidemic significant Sales losses as a result of drastic measures taken by the authorities in Moscow. In the opinion of Matthias Schepp, head of the German-Russian chamber of Commerce abroad (AHK), are affected by the spread of the Virus especially in the aviation, logistics, tourism and gastronomy.
in the medium term, it could come to a temporary stop in production in companies that were dependent on supplies of components, stated in an internal document of the chamber, which is present the German press Agency in a statement. “This affects in the largest extent, auto spare parts from China and the North of Italy, Microchips from China and South Korea, as well as chemicals from China.”
The chip shows the width of the problems. Exact Figures on possible financial damage for the German economy, no one dares to name. Also, the employer close to the IW wants to tell FOCUS Online on demand there is currently no exact values.
OECD warns of dramatic consequences
The organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) is concrete. She has published in the beginning of March a study for the evaluation of the Corona-crisis. The report notes: “The Coronavirus is the biggest threat to the world economy since the global financial crisis.”
The OECD’s two scenarios calculated in your study . In the best case global economic growth to 2020 is reduced from the previously expected 2.9 to 2.4 per cent.
This scenario assumes that the global Corona-the outbreak is quickly brought under control. This is the case, would be the consequences for Germany, relatively harmless: The OECD predicts for this case a business plus of 0.2 per cent . So far, the estimates were plus 0.3 percent.
So would the decline in the economic growth of individual countries and regions, the impact of the OECD In the case of scenario 1, the OECD expects a decline in negative effects in the subsequent quarters.
What the Numbers mean in concrete terms for Germany? In the year 2019, the entire German economic output (GDP) reached a value of 3.44 trillion (3440 billion) Euro. According to the previous OECD estimates that German GDP would have to grow in 2020 by 0.3 percent – about ten billion euros. The supposed growth drops to only 0.2 percent, which would lead to the Plus at just under seven billion euros, so good three-billion-Euro lower. That would be surprisingly small impact.
scenario 2 has it. in the
, The negative second scenario predicts a half of the world-wide growth of only 1.5 percent in the year 2020 This by the OECD as the “Domino scenario” designated model, we assumed that the Corona onset fails more extensive than previously expected. The epidemic radiates from China to other industrial countries, and attacks around the world. “In this case, the demand is made, probably over a longer period of time in many Parts of the world,” says the study.
it Comes to scenario 2, would have dampened economic growth significantly stronger.
So the decline in Growth rates between scenario 1 and 2 OECD
the difference between The blue bars, the decline in forecast economic growth and the orange bars for scenario 2 for scenario 1.
The OECD forecast that between the EU and the UK in 2021, a free trade enters agreement Were in force.
The study gives no detail figures for Germany. But it is not only pessimists have to assume that the damage will be much higher than in scenario 1.
It is also individual examples indicate:
The cost mind games of the football Bundesliga
The German football League (DFL), including currently, the League games take place this coming weekend, without an audience – the so-called mind games. In the Champions League is a mind game with German participation is already a reality: Paris St. Germain meets Borussia Dortmund.
Each game of the Bundesliga visit an average 40.867 audience, how the Site “transfer market” determined. The almost 368.000 paying spectators per round with nine encounters.
on average, a Ticket costs, according to the League’s working group for Ticketing 25,86 Euro.
in order for the clubs to achieve per round 9,51 million euros revenue for the spectators tickets. All the League would have declared to play encounters to the Spirit, would have to abandon the associations of nine dates on ticket revenue. The total would amount to almost 86 million euros . Would add the loss of Play in the Second Bundesliga, although the decrease is lower. However, Railways, bus companies and Hotels would have to forego revenue.
Lufthansa is losing hundreds of million euros
The largest German Airline, has particularly suffered from the collapse of the travel market. Lufthansa wants to delete every second flight. The damage amounts to hundreds of millions of euros.
2019 is achieved, the Airline’s total turnover of 10.18 billion euros. The are mathematically per month 848 million euros. Under, Lufthansa achieved all of the revenues with the flight tickets, then the company would lose a half flight of space per month approximately € 420 million sales. Also, the net profit of 1.22 billion euros in the year 2019 would not hold.
The tourism industry is starving
The German national tourist Board (gntb) expects the overnight Stays by Chinese guests in Germany will decline between 17 and 25 percent. All the Chinese tourists per year for nationwide sales of eight billion euros. The losses occur as feared, reach the lost Sales of 1.4 to two billion Euro. – only in the current year. The current forecast of the DZT comes from the beginning of February. At that time the Corona was detected with the Virus especially in the middle Kingdom. An extension of the analysis to other countries will be made until mid-March, such as the gntb FOCUS Online reported.
The German Hotel and restaurant Association (DEHOGA Bundesverband) also suggests Alarm. The industry Association recently published the results of a recent survey among its member companies. Then “complain more than three-quarters of the participating 10,000 Hotels, Restaurants and caterers to loss of revenue”:
- 76.1 percent of the losses already recorded
- 90,4 percent decline in new bookings
cancellation of trade fairs and congresses
to report the spread of The Corona Virus, which leads to more and more Cancellations of major events. In Berlin, the tourism fair was cancelled ITB, Munich craft fair to HIM, and in Leipzig for the book fair.
only the organizers do not miss your scheduled receipts. Also, the train, taxi companies and Hotels and restaurants suffer from the Cancellations.
the Bottom line is that all economic damages as a result of the Corona Virus, which is difficult to quantify. However, only optimists expect that there are only single-digit billion amounts.
Also of interest: trips, large events, schools, – The great Corona-Overview: Germany is today still
rush on Hygiene agent at Aldi: Sprays FOCUS Online/Wochit rush on Hygiene agent at Aldi: sold out already after 6 minutes Sprays already sold out in 6 minutes
mbe/with Material of the dpa
