As the Turkish statistical authorities on Monday morning, the Inflation in January was 12.15 percent year-on-year month. The inflation rose by 1.35 percentage points month-on-month. It was actually expected a stable inflation rate of 11.8 percent. Thus, the country groans under negative real interest rates. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has pushed the key interest rate already to 11.25 percent – the Inflation is above this value, as in this case, this results in a negative real interest rate.
all the same, The inflation was for certain, major products mild. Thus, food and non-alcoholic beverages increased in price by only 9.04 percent for the same month last year. The prices of tobacco goods and alcoholic drinks, however, jumped by 42.2 per cent year-on-year.
Commerzbank: the Lira on shaky ground
The experts at Commerzbank predict due to the rise in Inflation further turbulence for the Turkish Lira. “Bad thing is that the prices rise after a long recession after the Lira crisis of 2018 so strong. In this period, the Lira was relatively stable.“ Turkish Lira / US Dollar (TRY/USD) 0,1675 USD +0.0004 in (+0,25%) To have OTC
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as soon As this growth accelerates, according to the experts, the consequences for Inflation. “Once more, the Lira seems to stand on shaky feet. Therefore, the foreign exchange market has every reason to be, the Cocktail of double-digit Inflation, negative real interest rates and sustained interest, not to consider reductions with care, if the inflation trend is heading, finally, a steady Downward,“ conclude about the foreign exchange professionals. Devisen100 is the ideal consultancy service, if you want to make the first steps on the Forex. (Partner quote) here is an exclusive 30-day free trial!
the Outlook for the Lira
The Commerzbank forecasts for the Lira in the coming months, a significant loss of value. According to their forecast, the currency will rise against the Dollar of 5.80 Lira in March, but eight of the Lira in December 2021. Also against the Euro a bit of a loss of value is threatening in this period. Here is the forecast for March predicts a value of 66.1 Lira. By the end of next year, the experts of a course of, and in the case of 9.28 Lira for one Euro.
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