In one year, everything has changed, summarizes the IMF. Beginning in 2018, the economic activity was accelerating almost everywhere in the world, and forecasts overall growth amounted to 3.9% for 2019 and 2020. In their latest survey published Tuesday, the experts of the international monetary Fund are revising their forecasts largely in decline. They do not expect more than 3.3% growth this year and 3.6% next year. Between the trade tensions between the United States and China, “the stress macroeconomic” in Argentina and Turkey and disruptions in the automotive sector, the tightening of lending policy in China and the blow of the vis given to the monetary policies in the western countries”, the list of the brakes is long.
Slightly rising in China
In the euro area, Germany (0.5%) and Italy (-0,5%) are the countries most affected by this review in a reduction in the expected with a prospect of activity, bleak this year, respectively, 0.8% and 0.1%. In the case of France, the IMF has lowered its estimate of 0.2% compared to its January forecast, to reduce it to 1.3%. Is a touch less than the forecast of Bercy, which is expecting to grow by 1.4% this year.
In this grim picture, China (+0.1% in 2019) is the only large country for which the experts of the IMF are more optimistic than in January. With a few exceptions (Japan, India, Brazil, sub-saharan Africa), the IMF is forecasting a decline in growth in more than two-thirds of the global economy in 2019.
The situation should, however, return at the end of the year. This improvement will be due to the break observed by the central banks in their process of normalization of their monetary policy. And, if all goes well, lower trade tensions between the United States and China, anticipates the IMF. But the dangers remain multiple, starting with the Brexit, and the surprises that could book in spite of everything the chinese economy.
