Italy has avoided the infringement procedure, and Europe has switched off a conflict in his breast at the time where she manages the Brexit. On Wednesday, everybody was satisfied, including the financial markets.
Brussels “took note of the new measures in the budget presented by the Italian government”. If they are passed by the Parliament before the end of the year, the Commission will not recommend opening an excessive deficit procedure. Speaking in the wake of the senators, the chairman of the Board, Giuseppe Conte, expressed his pleasure for having “reversed the policy of his predecessors by an expansionary budget that meets the needs of a people who is impoverished”. The head of the Italian government boasts “the maintaining in full of the major reforms promised” a plan of massive investment in infrastructure.
How this Christmas miracle is it so happened, then that, the day before, they said that it still lacked 3.5 billion euros of savings? “The budget Italian is not perfect, but it is a step forward,” conceded the vice-president of the Commission Valdis Dombrovskis. In fact, with a deficit of 2.04 % in 2019 instead of the 2.4 % originally forecast, the Italy would have made a few revisions to be decisive. First, a framing more realistic, with a growth forecast reduced to 1 % for 2019, compared to a 1.5 % hoped before. Then economies of 10.25 billion in 2019, $ 12.2 billion in 2020 and $ 16 billion in 2021, according to the Italian figures.
For the next year, 4 billion of savings have been achieved by a postponement of the reform of retirement pensions and the income of citizenship, in the spring of 2019, as well as by the bet that less than 90% of the people eligible will benefit. The budget also provides for a désindexation pensions in excess of 1 500 euros and a reduction of up to 40 % of the largest pensions. Not to mention the reductions in allocations, including for the innovation fund. On the revenue side, new taxes on businesses are planned, in particular on the Gafa via a taxation of electronic transactions, and on betting and gaming. What has triggered the ire of the Confindustria, the employers.
Even in the blurred areas
These efforts have allowed us to respond in part to the urging of Brussels to improve the structural deficit by 0.6 percentage point of GDP in 2019, while the first budget increased by 0.8 of a point: the new version provides for a stabilization of the deficit-key to the evolution of the debt. As a pledge of his good faith, Rome has offered to freeze 2 billion euros in spending until the fall, which could be used in the event of slippage of the deficit.
For its part, Europe has once again granted a margin of flexibility to the height of 0.2% of GDP, to 10.5 billion investment over three years in infrastructure. Sign yet that each will have made an effort.
however, Remain important areas of focus, on the terms and conditions of the two major reforms defined at a later date. As on 20 billion euros of privatization promised in the real estate… Nobody is fooled. “We have a privileged dialogue with Italy on the clash, without betraying our rules, which has allowed us to bring Italy in the pact of stability and growth,” said Pierre Moscovici.
Because the important part was not so much the observance of rules “decimal place”, that the shared desire to reach an agreement. Starting with Europe, which does not want to spend for a “mother fouettarde” on the eve of the european election, nor to precipitate the fall of the populist coalition in Rome to see it replaced by a government led by the single League of Matteo Salvini.
