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The fact that heads of government are publicly commenting on details of national accounts is not often same. There was such a moment on CDU economic party in Berlin. Chancellor Angela Merkel said that international trade balances would be “relatively old-fashioned”. They looked too much at traditional goods, but neglected services that would become more and more important. We need to modernise in order to talk about right thing at all.
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The addressee of her admonition was not Federal Statistical Office, which is responsible for such calculations in Germany. Merkel’s message was addressed to US President Donald Trump. Since taking office, no economic statistics have been so much in focus as trade balance. Trump’s point of view is blunt and mercantilist: He hates deficits and loves surpluses. He wants his country to export more and to import less.
This article comes from time No. 26/2018. Here you can read entire output.
The surpluses, however, have not worked much longer. Since 1975, US exports less goods to rest of world each year than y import. Alone 2017 gaped a gap of 800 billion dollars, about four percent of gross domestic product. A nightmare for Trump, where miserable policy of his predecessors is to blame. With this unfair disadvantage, however, conclusion is now.
Because Trump is obsessed with it, world is on verge of a trade war. The first thing that felt was China. The European Union has also had steel and aluminium tariffs. Since n, Brussels and Berlin have been discussing how Europe should react. For time being, we have agreed on more symbolic retaliatory duties on peanut butter and or typical products. It is particularly important, however, to question basis of this dispute. Because it’s not that simple.
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Economists have fuzzy ir mouths that deficit does not exist because someone has pulled US over table. The Americans would have wanted it mselves. For 43 years y have been constantly consuming more than y produce. If you wanted to do something serious about it, you’d have to make a diet. But Trump doesn’t care. Nor does he want to hear that a trade war leads to higher prices for consumers.
For Trump, ors pull him over table, showing stats. So only this one remains to convince him. And re is amazing. Because depending on numbers you are handling, situation is very different.
First of all, Trump makes services outside when he talks about surpluses of ors. The Americans are traditionally strong in this sector. If you include m and talk no more about cars or refrigerators, but also about internet giants and tourism, it looks much better for America. The US is a net exporter of services. In addition, y have invested brilliantly throughout world, for example in company shares. These profits are also part of balance sheet that needs to be considered. If one refers to this – not only on trade balance, but on so-called current account – US deficit shrinks from 800 to 466 billion dollars in year 2017. Far less than Trump suggests to world. Above all, in such a bill, deficit is disappearing against certain countries and communities of States, for example with EU.
