1. Is re a threat of direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran?
In addition to Atomma, Israel’s leadership is particularly concerned with massive Iranian presence in neighbouring country Syria. Around 3,000 revolutionary garden is currently in use in Tehran, which is to remain in permanent service re. In addition, re are at least 10,000 militiamen recruited and paid by Iran, predominantly Iraqis and Afghans. For months, Israel has already led an undeclared war against this Iranian military power, which could dramatically escalate in coming months. The most serious incident so far occurred in February, when Tel Aviv’s air force brought an Iranian drone from sky over Golan Heights. In retaliation, Israeli F-16 fighter jets flew attacks against Iranian positions in Syria. On flight home, however, Syrian air defense was able to shoot one of Jets. In evening of Trump speech, Israeli fighter jets once again bombed Revolutionary Guards, this time a base near Damascus, where at least eight Iranians died.
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It is unclear how Russian government will behave in this conflict, with Israel having a direct hotline to Syria. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travelled to Moscow on Wednesday. For Kremlin could well be Netanyahu’s tougher course because it limits Iran’s ambitions in Syria. Conversely, Russian air defence alone can be a real threat to Israeli jets. And so Israel will be wary of directly attacking Assad regime or Russian institutions.
2. What does Trump’s confrontation with Iran mean for Yemen?
In Iran’s dispute with its regional adversaries in Gulf, war in Yemen could become more central. So far, Iranian weapons aid has been limited to Huthi forces rebels. However, Iran’s specialists apparently helped make old medium-range missiles from Yemeni army’s stocks more accurate and far-reaching. More than 130 projectiles have recently fired Houthis on Saudi Arabia, in terms of over 100,000 rocket attacks by Saudis, a small number. At least two rockets hit Riad’s international airport.
Also on night after Trump speech, two projectiles were fired on Saudi capital, but y could be intercepted. A negotiated solution is now moving far furr away. Iran should no longer be willing to act politically on Houthis to return to negotiating table.
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A major unknown in emerging regional turmoil is Lebanese Hezbollah. The Shia militia, which is considered most well-fought association in Arab world, supposedly has a missile arsenal of more than 100,000 projectiles, which can also reach Tel Aviv.
If, because of Iranian nuclear programme, Israel’s direct air attacks on Islamic republic were to occur, Hezbollah, as a longstanding governor of Iran in Arab world, could in turn open fire to Israel. But leadership of radical militia will be very carefully considered. In event of such an attack, Israel already threatened a widespread destruction of Lebanese infrastructure.
4. What is risk of a nuclear arms race in Gulf?
The Saudi crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently gave a taste of it. Saudi Arabia did not want to have a nuclear bomb, he assured, “if Iran builds one, we will, without any doubt, reconsider as soon as possible.” Like Islamic Republic, Saudi Arabia also owns uranium, which could be enriched by a weapons-capable level, one of two technological paths to bomb. 16 nuclear reactors want to build royal house in next two decades. Unlike his closest comrade, United Arab Emirates, whose first reactor block was recently completed, Saudi Arabia does not want to dispense with uranium enrichment or reprocessing plutonium – or way to Bomb.
The Saudis are particularly reluctant to refer to Turkey and Egypt, which are buying ir future nuclear power stations in Russia. Both reject any restriction on enrichment or re-processing – and Russian government does not care. In past, too, Saudi Arabia has already violated international nuclear rules. The Saudi royal House financed nuclear program of Pakistan, which, like India and Israel, is now withdrawing from International Atomic Weapons Barrier treaty. In addition, Riad has rockets with which nuclear warheads can be shot.
5. What does Trump’s decision for power structure in Iran mean?
Iran’s hardliners rejoice, it has disturbed nuclear treaty from outset. You have earned sanctioning regime splendidly and fear a social opening of your country. You now feel confirmed in your fundamental mistrust of United States. Their representatives now rely on a weakening of moderate camp under President Hassan Ruhani and a strengning of his own position of power.
The chief revolutionary leader, Ali Khamenei, who greeted agreement at first, you know again by your side. He made it clear on Wednesday in an unusual TV speech to his own government that he would do same as Trump if President Ruhani of three European powers France, Great Britain and Germany did not receive “clear guarantees” that y Continuing economic relations after 2015. “I doubt you can achieve that,” continued Khamenei. “But n we cannot continue as we have done before.”
