Shortly before breakthrough, Theresa May was forced to retract. The British prime Minister had to cancel Brexit negotiations with EU because Norrn Irish DUP had fallen into her back. Their party would reject anticipated agreement: DUP boss Arlene Foster explained that while talks were going on. May did not oppose this, because its minority government depends on benevolence of ten DUP deputies in British House of Commons. So United Kingdom and EU did not come toger.
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The scandal shows what is wrong with Brexit: idea that Britain can withdraw from internal market and customs union, but still operate freely with EU without frontiers and trade barriers, will not work. Since Monday evening it is clear that re will be no hard Brexit. Instead, one will probably agree on a softer variant similar to model that Norway and EU maintain. Although Norway does not belong to EU, country is a member of customs union and internal market. It pays and receives certain freedoms in return. “Norwegian model” will not be mentioned in case of Britain, because that would not be acceptable to British people. But direction is same.
The British government has no or choice, and reason for this is green Irish border. For constitutional reasons, all sides must accept that re will be no hard border between Norrn Ireland and Republic of Ireland in future: No customs controls, no checks on lorries that pass border every day, no obstruction of 30,000 people you cross daily. However, in order to ensure this, Norrn Ireland must not deviate from EU regulations relating to movement of goods and passengers, and not impose any or duties.
Good for Scots and Londoners
Only: How do you regulate this in practice? The EU apparently insisted initially on wording, British Government declares that re will be “no deviation” between regulations of Norrn Ireland and Republic of Ireland. But that went too far for British. It was n evidently agreed that regulation should be “aligned” to EU rules to a large extent.
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The problem is that if Norrn Ireland adheres to EU rules, but rest of Britain chooses anor form of Brexit, n break between Norrn Ireland and British mainland will inevitably be. In such a situation, cargo ships from Norrn Ireland would have to be controlled in British ports and vice versa. This, however, rejects DUP strictly – and that is why talks between Britain and EU are now once again deadlocked.
The solution is a soft Brexit in which UK continues to comply with EU rules and customs duties. The issue of Irish border would be unresolved at moment when it was agreed. By way, resistance of Scots and Londoners – who want to keep to EU rules and remain in internal market – would be broken against Brexit.
Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Michael Gove? Mute
For such a compromise, British government has been moving with giant strides towards EU over last few weeks. From former mantra “No deal is better than a bad deal” is nothing more to hear. Mays ‘ government has accepted a transitional period and also notes that during this transition period European Court of Justice will also have say in Britain. And country is good at paying net about 50 billion euros in commitments that EU has demanded from outset. The Eurosceptics in cabinet-Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and Michael Gove-do not hear any more sound.
Perhaps whole politically staged drama of Monday evening should show norrn and British that government has gone to extreme to fight for interests of population. And that a hard Brexit is just not possible because Constitution obliges country to keep border open to Norrn Ireland and Republic of Ireland. For British government, it is a major backward role to acknowledge this. As soft Brexit is to be designed in detail, you and representatives of EU will still have to figuring until March 2019.
