While in Berlin CDU, CSU, FDPund Greens are exploring possibility of a future coalition, world is negotiating global climate policy in old capital city of Bonn. As host of DesUN Summit, Germany should take opportunity to agree on clear implementation plans for climate protection. That also applies to withdrawal of coal.
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We have three ways to make exit from KlimaschädlichenTechnologien. The first would be swift, orderly and exploit new market opportunities that UndElektromobilität open up, for example, by renewable energies. The second: Too late and abrupt, with chaotic, unpredictable economic undsozialen consequences. The third, a “continue-as-yet”, leads directly to climate catastrophe. It would be worst option. Germany should not risk it, but instead take advantage of opportunity to put itself at forefront of green transformation, to advance necessary innovations and to actively conquer new markets. The Weichendafür must now put new government coalition in place.
Regardless of which option parties will decide: eir way, changes are imminent. Up to one-third of global Ölvorkommenund over 80 per cent of coal deposits must remain in soil when global warming is to remain below two degrees Celsius and a catastrophic climate change is to be prevented. For ir owners, y become worthless – if energy system is actually fundamentally rebuilt for climate protection, this leads to a drastic redeployment of assets. Companies whose business model is based on fossil energy must n take on sensitive losses. But at same time, expansion of ErneuerbarerEnergien creates new assets and economic opportunities.
Climate-friendly economies helps profits – not just morale of authors
Anna Levels is a research assistant in Department of Sustainable Economic and social development at German Institute for Development Policy (). Jonas Keil is a research assistant in Department of World Economy and development finance.
It is already possible to see some examples of risks inherent in fossil business models. The shares of German electricity producer RWE have lost nearly 80 percent of ir value in Vergangenenzehn years. Similarly bad was E. On, Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (ENBW) and Vattenfall, which was able to sell its German lignite business only with a high loss of about three billion dollars to TschechischeEnergie Holding (Eph). Out of concern, without losing brown coal even more, Vattenfall took purchase.
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Not only companies mselves, but also ir financiers are affected. Most banks, investment funds and investors are not at present aware of loss risks that are hidden in ir books. EinigeFachleute See danger of a “carbon bubble”, similar to Preisblaseauf of real estate markets, which led to financial crisis of years 2008 and 2009. Auchhier, banks and or investors were taking risks that y could no longer overlook – until big crash. If carbon bubble bursts, it would also affect pension funds and life insurance – and thus retirement provision of large sections of population.
Transparency can help prevent that. To assess dangers, investors must have access to necessary information. The Financial Stability Board, a internationalesGremium for monitoring financial market risks, discusses, for example, Wieman companies and funds can take responsibility to assess and disclose ir Kohlenstoffrisikenzu. Forward-looking investors would have moderate to avoid investing in fossil-value investments. Some are already doing this now. Thus, world’s largest pension fund, which Finanziertenorwegische Oljefondet from oil revenues, has begun to get out of fossil energy. The trend shows that climate-friendly investments are no longer only of moral Motivengetrieben, but can be result of a balancing of entrepreneurial opportunities undRisiken.
Opportunities for municipalities
Diegroßen German energy suppliers have missed transition to ErneuerbareEnergien so far: less than ten percent of German total capacity belong to m and at nationwide annual value added of renewables of around 17 billion euros y have little Share. The municipalities, on or hand, are much more involved in value creation with around eleven billion euros. This is an opportunity for energy turnaround: citizens and municipalities can benefit directly from added value of ErneuerbareEnergien.
However, a social balance must be created for existing coal regions. The social costs of Strukturwandelskönnen be high, as example of Ruhr area shows. But if economy, society and politics do not tackle change in an offensive, y will lose.
A clear exit plan from DerKohle would provide a reliable framework for transformation. The earlier companies undInvestoren with conversion of ir businesses and portfolios, Destoreibungsloser succeeds in transition – and more Germany can are from opportunities. Promoting structural change and alleviating social costs in coal regions must be gesellschaftlicheGemeinschaftsaufgabe in coalition agreement and state all. All parties should have an interest in such a transparent undgeordneten coal exit. The alternative is too risky not only for climate, but also from an economic and societal point of view.
