This is a close to 2.0% increase from Thursday’s post Russia invasion of Ukraine lows.
The RBA will decide policy next week, US jobs and ISM surveys, and Aussie GDP plus Geopolitics.
AUD/USD experienced an impressive rebound on Friday. The pair rallied back to the mid-0.7200s despite uncertainty over the European geopolitical landscape. This was despite the intensifying conflict between Russian and Ukrainian forces. The pair trades at 0.7330s, an increase of 1.0% over the previous day. The Aussie is one of the most performing G10 currencies during the session. This is a nearly 2.0% increase from Thursday’s intraday lows of sub-0.7100.
Friday’s recovery was partly driven by tailwinds that the risk-sensitive Aussie received as a result of a rally on global equity markets. As traders considered recent geopolitical developments more optimistic, traders also took a more sanguine approach to them. The traders said that the West’s sanctions against Russia so far were “soft” and eased fears about disruptions in energy supply somewhat. However, they still hoped for a diplomatic solution. Market commentators pointed out that the Aussie was supported by healthy dividend payments from Australian minors. These are usually converted to USD from the AUD.
Analysts estimated that the payout could have been as high as A$20B. However, they have not completed their analysis, which means that the Aussie may be more exposed to downside risks next week. Next week will be headline-driven and choppy as geopolitical developments within Europe are still at the forefront of investors’ minds. It is also a major week for economic information as well as central bank events. The February ISM survey data and US jobs are due. Meanwhile, down under the RBA will make policy decisions and release Q4 Australia GDP figures.
