We are approaching the end of the second quarter, and while we are still some time away from getting the official GDP numbers, the latest estimates from the Atlanta Fed are showing strength. This could potentially influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions in September.
According to the GDPNow model, the forecast for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024 is currently at 3.0 percent. This figure is slightly lower than the previous estimate of 3.1 percent, which was reported on June 18. The recent housing starts report from the US Census Bureau has also impacted the forecast for second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, causing it to decrease from 8.8 percent to 8.3 percent.
It is important to note that the next update to the GDPNow reading is scheduled for next Thursday, with the final reading set to be released on July 24. This means that there is still some time for economic indicators to shift and potentially impact the final GDP estimate for the second quarter.
While the current forecast of 3.0 percent growth is positive, it is crucial to keep an eye on any developments in the economy that could influence this figure. The Federal Reserve closely monitors GDP growth when making decisions about monetary policy, so any significant changes to the forecast could have implications for interest rates and other economic measures.
Overall, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast provides valuable insight into the potential performance of the economy in the second quarter of 2024. As we await the final reading later this month, it will be interesting to see how economic indicators continue to evolve and whether the forecasted growth rate holds true.