EUR/USD maintained its position above 1.0667 throughout the previous week, with the outlook remaining the same. The initial bias for this week is neutral, indicating a potential further decline as long as the resistance at 1.0760 holds. The drop from 1.0915 is seen as part of a larger corrective pattern, and a break of 1.0667 could lead to a target of 1.0601 and potentially lower.
Looking at the bigger picture, the price movements from 1.1274 are considered to be part of an ongoing corrective pattern. If 1.0601 is breached, the next target would be the support at 1.0447 and possibly extend to the 100% projection level from 1.1274 to 1.0447 based on 1.1138 at 1.0311. As long as the resistance at 1.0915 remains intact, this scenario will likely remain the preferred one in the event of a rebound.
In the long-term perspective, it is believed that a long-term bottom was established at 0.9534 (the low in 2022). However, the fact that the upside is still limited below the 55 M EMA (currently at 1.1018) indicates that there is no clear indication of a trend reversal yet. If the current downward trend gains momentum, there is a possibility that the downtrend from 1.6039 (the high in 2008) could resume at a later stage. This highlights the importance of monitoring key levels and indicators to assess potential future movements in the EUR/USD pair.
