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It is a major burden that OLAF Scholz is taking over from SeinemCDU predecessors. Wolfgang Schäuble has not accepted any new debts since 2014 in order to cover current expenditure. The so-called schwarzeNull has thus become epitome of Schäuble’s term as federal finance minister. That Scholz can and shares goal, NeueFinanzminister and vice-Chancellor will not let any doubts arise. “We all made Gemeinsamdie black zero,” says Scholz.
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No question, conditions are good. Germany has been experiencing an economic upturn for almost nine years. The Bundesregierungkorrigiert regularly upwards its growth forecast. The youngest Schätzungliegt at an impressive 2.4 percent, as high as it has been for years. Dasfreut federal Finance minister: with an additional 46 billion euro in Denkommenden four years, union and SPD were allowed to Koalitionsverhandlungengehen. In fact, federal government initially reckoned with only 30 billion euros.
The problem is: wishes of großenKoalition are much more expensive. on page 67 and 68 of coalition agreement you detailed as “priority expenditure”. The daycare development and Daserhöhte child benefit belong to this, but also social housing, helps for Kohlekumpelund more money for defense. The items add up almost exactly to 46Milliarden euro. Only below table is a small print, but WichtigerHinweis: furr measures are clarified within framework of Haushaltsaufstellungen2018/2019.
Financing hardly feasible
The “Or measures” are a big item. Dasarbeitgebernahe Institute of Business in Cologne has calculated and comes a financing gap of at least 20 billion euros. Not Finanziertsind, for example, mors ‘ pension – a favourite project of CSU – basic pension FürGeringverdiener (SPD wish) or 7,500 new posts InSicherheitsbehörden Confederation. The Prestige me of Groko, DieDigitalisierung of Germany, is also shakyly funded: Derb REIT band expansion (tens of billions of euros) and digital Pact school are to be paid by auctioning mobile Radio license 5g. But wher DerBund is actually taking 15 billion is completely open.
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And anor billion-dollar hole could open up: has of cold progression ignore union and SPD so far in IhrerKalkulation. The cold progression refers to phenomenon that EineGehaltserhöhung is eaten up not only by inflation but also at end by Einenhöheren average tax rate. It is a kind of Steuererhöhungdurch back door, union and SPD in this legislature furr abbauenwollen. In next few years, Confederation must lautIW Cologne for about nine billion euros. The experts come to a DerHaushaltspläne assessment: a fully funded implementation is “Kaumvorstellbar”. Eir Groko must “make a significant difference in projects or abandon objective of a balanced budget”.
Scholz ‘ coalition partner is also sceptical. Some Conservative MEPs still think that Treasury Department is now run by an SPD man. “I do not see DieserLegislaturperiode,” says Eckhart Rehberg, haushaltspolitischerSprecher of Union. Many of measures to which Union and SPD would have agreed would, above all, relieve countries and municipalities, but not confederation.
