In opinion of International Monetary Fund (IMF), German economy is doing well. Economic output will rise 2019 by 2.1 percent, dieArbeitslosenquote again slightly down 0.1 points to 3.5 percent, predicts IMF. Thus, DieInflationsrate remains practically stable at 1.7 percent. DieStaatsschulden will fall 2018 to 60 percent of gross domestic product and year 2019 to 56.1 percent.
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However, IMF also identifies critical points in its report. The effects of a harsh Brexits, increasing protectionism, for example, by tariffs in US and a “reorganization of burden-sharing in eurozone” could pollute investment climate and German Exportebehindern. This would lead to geopolitical uncertainties, but also risk a return to Euro sovereign debt crisis alsUnsicherheitsfaktor.
As a measure, IMF calls on federal government to invest its budget surpluses primarily in education and workers. The report says that one must promote privateInvestitionen and provide sufficient qualifizierteArbeitskräfte to economy.
The investment would langfristigauch to reduce foreign trade surplus of Germany’s exports, writes IMF experts. The surplus is criticized by US President Donald Trump, among ors. It also exceeds limits set by European Union. The EU classifies a value of more than six percent of gross domestic product as a threat to stability. Germany reached 2016 a high of 8.5 percent and will land after 8.0 Prozentim last year according to IMF 2018 at 8.3 percent and next year at 8.1 percent.
Warning about high real estate prices
Specifically, IMF experts are also warning against a housing bubble in centers of large cities. The increase in house and apartment prices in metropolises must be closely monitored.
The Bundesbank Gehtdavon that German financial system could Immobilienpreiseum a decrease of 30 percent. The capital resources of banks seidafür sufficient, even if unemployment rate was to skyrocket to eight per cent at same time.
