The Mexican Peso saw a significant increase in value as the USD/MXN pair dropped below 18.00. This surge was driven by the positive inflation data released in June, with the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising close to 5%. The surge in inflation was mainly due to an increase in food prices and the depreciation of the Peso.
Banxico’s Deputy Governor, Jonathan Heath, expressed concern over the inflation data, indicating a hawkish stance. This worrying inflation data might lead to the Bank of Mexico refraining from lowering interest rates to combat the domestic economic slowdown.
Market participants are now eagerly awaiting Banxico’s upcoming monetary policy meetings on Thursday, which are expected to reveal the central bank’s cautious approach towards reducing borrowing costs.
On the global front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that more positive inflation data is needed before considering cutting interest rates in the US. He also mentioned that unexpected weaknesses in the labor market could prompt policy easing.
In Mexico, analysts predict that the economy may slow down but avoid a recession, as indicated by the National Statistics Agency’s Coincident Indicator. However, concerns have been raised regarding the impact of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s reforms on the country’s creditworthiness.
Additionally, data shows that Mexico’s CPI rose to 4.98% annually in June, exceeding expectations. Auto exports and production in the country saw a significant slowdown in June. On the other hand, consumer inflation expectations in the US have been lowered, while the US Dollar Index has shown a slight increase.
Technical analysis indicates that the USD/MXN pair has reached a ten-day low of 17.91 but remains above the June 24 cycle low of 17.87. If the pair closes below 18.00, it could further decline towards key support levels.
Overall, the Mexican Peso’s value is influenced by various factors, including economic performance, central bank policies, foreign investments, remittances, and geopolitical trends. Understanding these factors can provide insights into the currency’s movements and help investors make informed decisions.