NEW ETC REPORT HIGHLIGHTS PRIORITY ACTIONS TO LIMIT GLOBAL WARMING
LONDON, Nov. 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Despite positive developments from COP26, current pledges and commitments from countries, even if fully implemented, still do not put the world on track to limit warming overall at 1.5°C. For the world to have even a 50% chance of reaching that goal, COP27 must act as a catalyst to turn broad national commitments into concrete action and pave the way for stronger action to phase out carbon and end deforestation.
The economic and political situation ahead of COP27 is very complicated. In addition to lingering pressures from the Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain disruptions, the world is now facing record energy and food prices in many regions as a result of the war in Ukraine. All this is causing high inflation, lower growth and risks of recession in many countries.
There is a danger that energy security and short-term economic pressures, along with geopolitical tensions, will divert national and international attention from climate change issues. But many of the actions needed to build greater energy security could also drive a faster transition to a low-carbon economy, as outlined in the ETC paper link. Despite global geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds, there is some evidence of progress on climate commitments.
Maintain 1.5°C on the table
Some voices question whether a 1.5°C trajectory is still feasible. However, every 0.1°C rise above 1.5°C will have hugely significant effects on climate change. The world must continue to aspire to this goal and ensure that any exceedance of it is as low as possible. Therefore, both full implementation of COP26 commitments and further progress at COP27 are essential if the world is to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
“Despite the current global economic and political challenges, we must continue to focus on the global crises presented by climate change. Every increase of 0.1°C above 1.5°C will have a hugely significant impact. Many of the Actions needed to build greater energy security could also drive a faster transition to a more resilient and stable low-carbon economy Therefore, both full implementation of COP26 commitments and further progress at COP27 are essential to that the world has a 50% chance of limiting global warming,” said Adair Turner, chair, Energy Transitions Commission.
3 priority areas to accelerate progress
Against this background, ETC’s new report Degree of Urgency: Accelerating Action to Keep 1.5°C on the Table highlights three priority areas for accelerating progress:
“Developed countries must take advantage of the opportunity created by Lula’s election, providing the financial support that can allow Brazil to quickly end deforestation: this is an agreement that hopes to be reached at COP27,” said Adair Turner, president, Energy Transitions Commission.
Progress at COP26, but there is still an “ambition gap”
Despite the positive momentum from COP26, an “ambition gap” remains: current pledges and commitments from countries do not yet put the world on a 1.5°C trajectory.
The formal pledges of countries (NDCs) and the net-zero targets that came out of COP26 put the world on a trajectory of above 2°C of warming. Although 24 countries have since submitted updated NDCs, only Australia’s has a material impact on closing the emissions gap by 2030.
COP26 also led to a series of sectoral agreements – including deforestation, methane and carbon phase-outs – by countries and private participants that, if fully met, could put the world on the path of 1.8 °C. However, the vast majority have yet to be translated into formal commitments from countries, and major agreements, such as the one to end deforestation by 2030, are seriously underfunded.
Positive progress, but there is still an “implementation gap”
Despite encouraging advances in policy and technology, the world is also facing an “implementation gap” between promised goals and progress on the ground.
Significant policy steps have been taken this year in the EU, US and China that have started to bridge the implementation gap, with ambitious targets (and strong implementation prospects) set out in the REPowerEU package, the United States and China’s 14th Five-Year Plan.
Keep alive 1.5°C: what can be done?
The world has a shrinking carbon budget to 1.5°C (500 Gt from 2020, 420 Gt from early 2022), so the time to act is running out.
Despite the good news on commitments and implementation from developed countries and China, the current figures fall short of 1.5°C: on a full implementation trajectory, developed countries, China and India alone are likely to would exceed the carbon budget needed to “keep 1.5°C alive”.
To square global emission reduction targets with the economic development needs of emerging and developing economies, it will be necessary for all countries – but in particular developed economies and China – to at least meet, and ideally exceed or increase , emission reduction commitments. This will drive technological progress which in turn will reduce mitigation costs around the world.
“The ETC highlights critical actions for nations and businesses if the world has any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Mobilizing global leadership is at the core of the Race to Resilience and Race to Zero campaigns, and the ETC recommendations demonstrate that it is technically and economically feasible to get back on the collaborative track. Building momentum is one thing, but now it is crucial that we move to rapid execution for the remainder of the 2020s,” said Nigel Topping, a United Nations senior advocate for climate change in the UK.
Across the board, ambitious political action can lead the way, but we identify two additional key drivers of action:
· The need to address emissions from agriculture, forests and other land use sectors, and in particular methane and CO emissions from deforestation resulting from the consumption of red meat: addressing these will require modify the diet or introduce technological changes such as the development of synthetic meat.
· And the need for increased funding to phase out carbon, end deforestation, and soon develop large-scale carbon dioxide removal.
“In the year since COP26, in which national priorities have seemed to shift away from climate, a balance of progress on the ground reveals a mixed picture. The deployment of renewable energy and electric vehicles is fast and ongoing. increasing, and there is also optimism around advances in heavy industry and progress in energy efficiency.However, this is not enough and it is urgent to advance in the reduction of methane emissions, in the early elimination of coal and in ending deforestation,” said Mike Hemsley, deputy director, Energy Transitions Commission.
Although both high-income and developing countries can do more to accelerate their own emissions reductions, there are two other options that can accelerate progress:
1. Financing flows in the form of private and public sector investments and payments for low-income countries to advance faster than technology and policy sharing alone would allow.
2. Faster scale-up and greater contribution of negative emissions solutions along with fast and deep emission reductions, as highlighted by ETC in link.
Sumant Sinha, Chairman, Founder and CEO of ReNew Power stated, “It is vital that countries around the world continue to move forward and tackle the global challenge of climate change together. Urgent action is needed to meet the dual goals of reducing emissions and meet the economic development needs of emerging and developing countries. The rapid deployment of zero-carbon energy, supported by the right policy environment, is key to ensuring a real economic transition that benefits the planet” .
To read the full report, visit: link
Notes to editors
This report constitutes the collective opinion of the Energy Transitions Commission. ETC members endorse the general thrust of the arguments set forth in this report, but they should not be taken as endorsing all of the conclusions or recommendations. The institutions to which the members of the Commission are affiliated have not been asked to formally endorse the report.
For more information on ETC, visit: https://www.energy-transitions.org/
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