hits The Corona Virus, the world economy at an inopportune time. Because it is already unstable. But how bad the negative effects are? After all, the Rate of new infections in China, resulting in a gradual containment of the epidemic hope. And, apparently, the diseases run outside of China lightly. Therefore, the exchanges themselves are a revenue warning at the China-dependent Apple-group-surprisingly good. Apparently, one is confident that China and the surrounding emerging economies, by striking the economy and to start the monetary policy measures in a post-viral recovery. The Person
Robert Halver, the analysis of Capital markets head of Baader Bank.
economy suffers from Corona Virus
The Corona-Virus has reached the economy. So Apple was due to the limited number of primary products from China and the slump in demand for its sales forecast in turnaround and wants prior to April not a new car. That speaks for impairments of other companies, which are heavily dependent on China. Due to the clout of China, the entire world economy will have to take a temporary damage. The world’s shrinking revenue in the U.S. construction machinery manufacturer Caterpillar, the indicator is considered to be cyclical in the early show. Baader Bank
each social discord, to counteract the stresses Beijing regularly the most far-reaching recovery in Chinese industrial production. It is thought by some fining. Among others, in Shanghai the air pollution is as an indicator for industrial activity is significantly below its historical average. Baader Bank
Important economic indicator breaks a
The longer China as the nerve point of the world economy is in need for the containment of the Virus, the greater the contagion effects are already from the trade of conflict weakened the world economy. Clear warning signals from the Baltic Dry Index as a barometer for world trade. As an Index for freight rates of commodities such as copper, or coal, he broke from its interim high in September of 2018 is already a good 80 percent. A comparable decline within such a short period of time had given it last during the global financial crisis. Of cloudy sentiment, the ifo export expectations of the German industry reports. Overall, the German economy is heading in the I. quarter to a slight technical recession. Baader Bank
Behind the long-term Export Boom and the dependency could hide for the German structural problems in the auto industry and, more generally, in terms of infrastructure and digitisation for a long time. However, this veil is the tiger, always by himself. And the perspectives are also due to the prevailing in Germany of hostility to Industry little rosy.
a Vivid example of the provisional suspension of construction of the new Tesla Gigafactory in the state of Brandenburg because of tree clearing was. It comes to climate activists, with a massive boost to electric mobility, but solid, it is 12,000 jobs in an economic weak Region, and Tesla has even promised trees elsewhere more than interesting to replant. Tesla will certainly have to have an exit clause. Because of this instruction, this “German hour” has absurd no other company in the world interest. In the extreme case, Tesla pulls back and the German economy as a location make a fool of himself. Earlier, reliability was a German brand.
by the Way, German companies invest increasingly outside of Germany. Capital goes where it makes sales and return on investment, and not, per se, is demonized. Unfortunately, the labour factor is not nearly as mobile. It is a sign of alarm that the German industry for the first Time in ten years, no further jobs were set up.
With pure climate ideology, it does not create jobs
But the German policy is concerned, either with itself or sunning in the election of populist social romance without clear, like this morning, and the day after tomorrow will be financed. Anyway, why don’t you use the land of negative yields on Government bonds for the financing of a business location, with the encounter of Americans and Chinese at eye-level? And why the economic policy of using the German Know-how in environmental technology, it is not consistent for a large new German business model, which we’re giving away not again as a good Samaritan in China? Only with a pure climate ideology, it does not create jobs. Without the economic competence of Germany, threatens to become once again the sick man of Europe. In the extreme case, we pay a political price.
prospects for the economy more good
The financial markets to take the messages about waning infections of the Corona Virus and the outside of China, largely lenient course of Infection positive. Baader Bank
it is Also against this Background, it is expected in the second half of the year 2020 with a General economic recovery. South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong have already taken measures to stabilise the Economy. A Japanese stimulus package is expected to boost to a self-inflicted economic decline, a result of the increase in VAT in the autumn of 2019, domestic demand. And Beijing agreed to extensive stabilization measures, such as company tax and fee reductions for particularly affected sectors, or a relaxation of lending are likely to benefit due to their close interdependence, as well the neighboring Asian Economies, and ultimately the world economy.
