The one trade conflict is yet once solved, since Donald Trump already restarts next. The EU is still versuchtdie desperate to remain spared planned import duties on steel and aluminium, as US president is already threatening to import cars with customs duties. This may be interpreted as Trump’s strength. But, in end, president’s dieseaggressive economic policy could not go well for United States.
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One can easily lose track of all trade disputes that Trump has recently instigated. Wher its criticism of China’s trade power, planned Iran sanctions, dispute over Zölleauf imported steel and aluminum, hard-hit negotiations on dienordamerikanische trade Zone NAFTA, vehement boycott EU-Russia pipeline Nord Stream 2 – it is ludicrous.
But behind this chaos, Sicheine hides some logic. Trump intertwines conflicts that, at first sight, have to do with each or, for example, exit from Iran-Dealmit a targeted weakening of European economy kaumetwas. So he creates sichimmer more negotiating options. The more conflicts are interwoven, more opportunities arise for deals. In end, impression is that Trump has full control. It leaves Europe unclear when it comes to Zölleauf cars or steel. He arbitrarily grants postponement – or not. The former allies are snubbed and can only wait helplessly, such as next turnaround. This approach is called America first. It is economic policy nationalism.
Everything is Verknäult
At a certain point, however, se problems sindall so much verknäult that chaos will have real consequences – for US and probably for rest of world as well. Nochkann Trump carefree into any conflict. The US may have a large trade deficit. But US dollar is Internationaldie key currency: The world depends on it, we pay it, we invest in it. China alone holds us Schuldtitelim volume of more than one trillion dollars. From dollar Schöpfendie us ir world political significance. You know how to use it specifically, such as Iran sanctions show.
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But Trump’s protectionism will let prices rise in US in medium term. Higher tariffs Verteuerndie Imports – this is how prices and interest rates rise. In addition, Trump has also gone into a risky path in meantime. Point by point, he works out his election promises – and takes a lot of money into his hand. He put in more than a trillion-dollar infrastructure program, Senktradikal corporate taxes, buys billions of tax losses in order to bring back parked profits abroad. Business representatives cheer, Trump voters also. In short term, it seems to be successful, US economy is growing vigorously.
Highly indebted USA
But in end, Trump is likely to be harmed by this policy itself. The International Monetary Fund is already warning against US’s excessive indebtedness. In coming five Jahrenkönnten, US alsItalien a higher debt ratio in relation to economic performance – and that is what we need to create. While world’s wichtigstenVolkswirtschaften are currently reducing debt, only US is piling up new. Highly indebted states are considered to be particularly vulnerable to crises, y are stuck, daszeigt experience, longer in economic crises, because y lack financial resources to counteract a lull.
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In this way, a mix that has durchausdas potential to at least slow down world economic growth comes from a rampant budgetary policy and a protectionist trade policy. If US starts to save, that will immediately affect global growth. And that America can trigger a chain reaction with severe distortions in world economy has shown financial crisis ten years ago.
For Europe, this is all or Alsweit way, European and American economies are too closely intertwined. But now, of all things, EU must be able to bring euro to its limits with a Brexirumschlagen and with a new, antieuropean government in Italy, Derenwirtschaftspolitische ambitions. Sichglaubwürdig to abide by ir own rules, to discipline mselves, to pull toger: this is only way to make Europe less vulnerable if a US president overwrought his possibilities on or side of Atlantic.
