The USD/JPY pair experienced a decline from 161.94 to 151.93 last week before bouncing back after briefly breaking through the 151.98 resistance turned support level. This week, the initial bias remains neutral for consolidations. The risk remains on the downside as long as the 155.36 support turned resistance level holds. A clear break of the 151.89 resistance turned support will suggest that a large-scale correction is underway towards the 148.66 Fibonacci level. However, a break of 155.36 will shift the bias back to the upside for a stronger rebound.
Looking at the bigger picture, it is believed that 161.94 may already be a medium-term top considering the depth and momentum of the recent decline. The fall from that level is viewed as a correction of the entire rise from 127.20, at least. A break of 151.89 will open the path to the 38.2% retracement level from 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. The risk will continue to be on the downside as long as the 55-day exponential moving average (currently at 157.17) holds in case of a rebound.
In the long-term perspective, as long as the 140.25 support level remains intact, the uptrend from the 75.56 (2011 low) is still ongoing. The next target is the 138.2% projection from 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58, which stands at 172.08. This indicates a positive outlook for the pair in the long run, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the future.
