An agreement was reached between the US and the EU on natural gas supplies.
EUR/USD Price Outlook: Constrained to the 1.0960-1.1000 price range.
The EUR/USD is stable amid a turbulent trading day. Market mood swings from risk on to off continue on “hawkish” comments by Fed officials. They also stagnate peace negotiations discussions with Russia and Ukraine and an attack against Saudi Arab Aramco installations Friday. The EUR/USD is at 1.0992 and shows the strength of the greenback despite being slightly softer during the day.
The market sentiment changes as the New York session progresses. The US equity indices are volatile with gains and losses. However, the US Dollar Index is a gauge of the greenback’s value relative to a basket of six currencies. It stands at 98.787.
Russia and Ukraine, NATO updates
The war in Eastern Europe has now reached a full month of hostilities between Russia, Ukraine. Although peace talks have taken place, the main issues remain unresolved between the two parties, as the Russian negotiator stated early in the morning on wires. He said that Russia and Ukraine were getting closer to each other on secondary issues. NATO’s summit in Brussels ended at the same moment, with the US reaching an agreement regarding natural gas, so that Europe could reduce its dependence on Russia.
The news is positive for the Eurozone but the EUR/USD did not react positively, and the pair remains parked in the 1.0980-1.1000 region.
US commercial banks expect two 50-bps hikes
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs analysts had predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise 50 basis points in the following two meetings in May and June.
The US Fed continues to speak with John Williams, the New York Fed President, backing a 50-bps increase. He stated that if necessary, he would raise the rate by 50 basis points at any meeting.
According to the US economic docker, Pending Home Sales decreased 4.1% in February from a 1% increase expected. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final March was 59.4 compared to 59.7. Inflation expectations were at 5.4%, versus 4.9% in the previous report.
EUR/USD Price Outlook: Technical outlook
Although the EUR/USD is still biased downward, it has traded in a narrow range of 1.0960-1.1000 over the past four trading days. The market mood and lack of a catalyst could keep the currency trendless.
The EUR/USD first support would then be 1.0960. Brute of this would expose 1.0900 and then the YTD low at 1.0806. The EUR/USD first resistance would be at 1.1000. The next resistance, once cleared, would be 1.1050 followed by 1.1100.
