MADRID, 18 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas) has raised its forecasts for economic growth in Spain by three tenths in 2022, to 4.5%, but has cut its estimates for 2023 by 1.3 points, to 0.7%, due to the weakening of the economy and the cooling of domestic demand in a context of uncertainty due to the war in Ukraine and rising prices.
From the Foundation they estimate that in the last quarter of this year and the first of next year “it is possible” that there will be decreases in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which would generate a situation of “technical recession”. Of course, from Funcas they have highlighted that in a longer horizon this “small” positive growth will take place in Spain (0.7%), compared to less promising prospects for other economies in the euro zone.
This was advanced by the general director of Funcas, Carlos Ocaña, and the director of the Situation and International Economy of Funcas, Raymond Torres, at a press conference to explain the update of the economic forecasts for Spain for the period 2022-2023.
Experts have explained that the Spanish economy has weakened in recent months and the rise in prices has reduced the purchasing power of households, which have already consumed a significant part of the savings cushion accumulated during the pandemic.
Although Funcas estimates that employment levels will remain stable –with the creation of 220,000 jobs between the second quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023– and that wages will grow by 3.5% next year –a point and a half more than in 2022– this will be “insufficient” to recover the purchasing power of families, who will even continue to lose capacity.
This is because, given the current episode of price escalation, the Fundación de Cajas de Ahorros has projected an average inflation for the current year of 9.1% and 4.8% for 2023.
Funcas’ forecasts pivot on a scenario that contemplates that additional increases in interest rates will be made until reaching 2.5% in the second quarter of 2023, although from then on they will remain without major changes.
((((THERE WILL BE EXTENSION))))
