HSBC considers that the cost synergies of 850 million proposed by BBVA in its offer to merge with Banco Sabadell are “aggressive”, given the size of the group and the fact that it aspires to maintain a dual operating structure, with two headquarters in the country. .

In a note to clients and investors, HSBC considers that the logic behind a merger is “incontestable”, given that the agreement will allow BBVA to strengthen its presence in Spain and rebalance the geographical ‘mix’ with more developed countries. “The accounts, however, seem a bit challenging,” he warned.

The bank considers that the cost synergies mentioned by BBVA are “aggressive”, since they represent 39% of Banco Sabadell’s cost base.

The British bank estimates that the agreement will be positive for earnings per share of around 3% by 2026, assuming that cost synergies are achieved by that year. HSBC’s estimates are somewhat more conservative than those of BBVA, which predicts that it will boost earnings per share by 3.5%.

In any case, HSBC warns that BBVA does not mention the possibility of negative income synergies, something that HSBC considers “possible” in this case. The bank also considers the impact on capital for BBVA to be very optimistic, which will only be a multiple of 1.7 times the total restructuring costs (1,450 million), despite the fact that in previous mergers this multiple has been around 2 times.