Sales of Valentine’s Day cards are expected to slide 5.9 percent this year as fewer people buy cards for sweethearts and millennials opt for experiences over material items, a market research analyst said this week.
Anya Cohen, a retail analyst with IBISWorld in New York, said Valentine greeting-card sales are expected to total $739.8 million in the U.S., down from $786.2 million in 2016.
The decline follows two consecutive years of modest increases, but it’s part of a longer downward trend.
Even so, you’ll want to think twice about jumping on the abandon-the-card bandwagon. There remains a high expectation among many in Southern California to receive a physical, paper card, not just a colorful but cheap message sent via email or social media.
And if you’re a millennial, don’t assume cards are so yesterday that your lover doesn’t want one.
No kidding. Peter Doherty, executive director of the Washington, D.C.-based Greeting Card Association, said in the past few months millennials reached a new milestone.
“Millennials are now the largest card buyers by group,” Doherty said by phone Thursday. “They have passed the baby boomers, not in units necessarily, but in overall sales dollars.”
There are millennials who covet the traditional Valentine’s card as much as their parents and grandparents do.
‘Not my boyfriend’
Count 20-year-old Britany Strassenburg among them.
“If my boyfriend thinks a message on Facebook is good enough, he’s not my boyfriend anymore,” quipped Strassenburg, who clerks at a Southern California gift store.
Cards are also important to Wayne Waters’ wife.
He found that out about seven years ago, during the first Valentine’s Day after he and wife, Amber, exchanged vows. Waters, 32, of Riverside, didn’t buy her a card that year. Nothing was said right away. But the disappointment came out loud and clear a short time later.
“When we were having a little argument, she brought up the fact that I didn’t get her anything for Valentine’s Day,” he said.
Since then, Waters has never forgotten to get her a card. He won’t forget this year, either.
Waters said he thinks he knows now why it’s important. It’s the idea of having something to hold onto, something sentimental.
And, he said, “I think she likes the fact that I actually go out and read the cards, and look for something clever.”
Still, some are going to back out of the card thing this Valentine’s Day and get away with it.
Messages for free
According to IBISWorld and the National Retail Federation, greeting-card sales will tumble this season in large part because 46.9 percent of consumers plan to buy cards, down from 47.9 percent in 2016.
“There are many reasons why greeting card sales are declining this Valentine’s Day, and social media is definitely a factor,” Cohen said in an email. “Although IBISWorld estimates that revenue for the Gift Shops & Card Stores industry will increase 2.1 percent in 2017, greeting cards’ share of the industry’s revenue has been steadily declining, as social networking sites have increasingly allowed friends and family to send holiday messages for free.”
Compounding the decline, Cohen predicted a surge in purchases of less- expensive cards from discount retailers and department stores and a decline in buys from specialty retailers such as greeting card stores.
Not every aspect of the romance holiday is trending downward.
Jewelry and flower purchases are projected to rise modestly. Spending on romantic getaways is expected to rise 4.6 percent, a trend driven by millennials’ romantic leanings, Cohen said in a report. Cohen cited a Harris Group survey that found 72 percent of millennials prefer to spend money on experiences over material items.
All is not lost, though.
According to news reports, greeting-card giant Hallmark has cut its workforce in half in recent years, and American Greetings has closed many of its stores around the country. But Doherty, of the Greeting Card Association, said there are bright spots.
“This may sound funny, but in part because of social media and electronic messaging this industry has gotten smarter,” he said.
Doherty said the industry is developing more specialized lines of cards that cater to specific customer preferences. Difficult times has encouraged innovation. For example, last summer, he said, Hallmark inked a deal with the Country Music Association to produce cards with polished music clips.
Carrie Bratcher, spokeswoman for Hallmark in Kansas City, said her company has adapted to the changing industry by introducing its own electronic products.
They aren’t entirely free, but they are inexpensive.
Essentially, Hallmark sells subscriptions that enable customers to tap into the company’s library of electronic cards and send an unlimited number for a period of time, Bratcher said. She said such subscriptions are priced at $5 for one month, $18 for one year and $24 for two years.
In Southern California, some card store operators remain bullish about the future.
‘They don’t want emails’
Ellie Yang has owned Jane’s Hallmark Shop in West Hills for 20 years. Valentine’s Day has always been good for her.
Already, the shop is filling with men young and old, Yang said.
“Valentine’s Day and Mother’s Day are the two holidays of the year that men come to shop,” she said. “They come so that they can be OK for the rest of the year.”
Sure, she’s heard the horror stories about declining sales. It doesn’t bother her.
“I just smile every time people complain about it,” she said.
At Allie’s Hallmark Shop in Riverside, manager Mada Moy remains optimistic.
Most people, you see, still want the traditional card.
“The loved ones, they don’t want emails, they don’t want texts,” Moy said. “It all goes back to the old-fashioned envelope and card. That’s what people want.”
Valentine’s Day spending projections, 2017
•Greeting cards: $739.8 million, down 5.9 percent from 2016
•Candy: $2.16 billion, down 0.6 percent
•Jewelry: $2.17 billion, up 0.6 percent
•Flowers: $2.33 billion, up 0.3 percent
•Evening out: $5.5 billion, down 5.1 percent
•Apparel, accessories, personal care products: $1.65 billion, down 2 percent
•Romantic getaways: $4.9 billion, up 4.6 percent
Total: $19.5 billion, down 2.3 percent
Spending per shopper: $149.37, down from $150.33 in 2016
Source: IBISWorld
Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the total Valentine greeting-card sales. They are expected to total $739.8 million in the U.S., down from $786.2 million in 2016. The graphic indicating the Valentine’s Day spending projections also has been updated with accurate figures.
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