By giving their green light to the organisation of a referendum initiative of shared (RIP) on the privatisation of the group Aéroports de Paris, the Sages of the Council constutionnel have triggered a whirlwind of political and economic in which the ADP group, which manages the airports of Roissy and Orly, finds himself entangled. Economically, the company considers the trust of its investors melt like snow in the sun, while clouds are gathering over his future. A sign of their concern, this Friday morning, the title ADP dévissait by about 10%, a drop that occurs in the aftermath of a bad night for the course, which has already lost 5,68% in Trading Thursday. In parallel, the investment bank JPMorgan has lowered its recommendation for the title of the group, from “overweight” to “neutral”. The objective of the course has also been brought down from 210 to 160 euro only.
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In front, the main shareholder of the group, the State, quiet the game and wants to reassure shareholders on this troubled period. Interviewed this Friday morning on Cnews, Bruno Le Maire, the minister of Economy, has tried to minimize the scope of the procedure now committed. “Fundamentally, I believe in this project”, he hammered, arguing that it was “good economically for the country.” In addition, the minister of Economy has confirmed that no procedure of privatization would be undertaken as long as the procedure of the RIP will run. Rather than pining for these potential delays, it has promised to use this time to exercise pedagogy, in order to “better explain [this] project” to the citizens.
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In a statement quoted by AFP, the ministry said that it “takes note of the decision of the constitutional Council”, and repeated that no decision on privatization “would be taken in the time of the procedure”. Which may take, in fine, over a year and a half: the opponents are going to first have to have nine months to raise more than 4.7 million voters ‘ signatures supporting their project, via the internet or via access points, “at least in the most populated town of each canton”. Then, the Parliament will have six months to review a text on the subject. In the contrary case, the president of the Republic shall call a referendum on the proposal.
Delay in the ignition
In fact, this delay does not change for the moment nothing for the proponents of the transfer of the ADP in the private sector. Privatization should not be implemented before several months and Bercy did not publish the specification for the investors before this fall. As a shareholder, the State, however, must now wait for the title and find colors before committing to the sale of its shares, under the pain of realizing a loss, which would limit the financial interest of the project. To do this, however, we need to reassure shareholders about the future of the group, its development and its prospects.
A mission that promises to be difficult in a troubled context. The group will be privatised? What will be its shareholders, how will evolve his title in the coming months? In case of failure of the procedure of privatization, how the State will he pick up the case in hand? So many unknown damaging to a business which needs stability in order to undertake major projects and who would benefit from the privatization in order to increase flexibility, agility, and flexibility, according to Bercy: in its latest financial report, ADP recalled the great work airport were planned for the coming months in order to accompany the growth in air traffic. Investments of the order of six billion euros was provided for in the development of Orly, le Bourget and Charles de Gaulle. However, the uncertainties about the months to come could complicate these plans.
at the same time, the State itself will have to wait before receiving the revenue of several billion euros due to the sale of its shares in ADP. For the “deleveraging” of the country as well as in the financing of a fund for innovation, this money could fly away, if the draft privatisation collapses. A hypothesis rejected for the moment by Bercy, which calls for “patience”. “What ever is wrong on a financial transaction of this magnitude, taking its time”, says the executive.
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A political dilemma
in the longer term, the horizon is also difficult from a political point of view. And this referendum can be held or not. The RIP will enable opponents to come back under the limelight: several elected officials, such as deputy PS and spokesman of the socialist party and Boris Vallaud, or the member BIA Éric Coquerel have promised to make proof of “pedagogy” to convince voters to provide their signature against the privatisation of ADP. In this context, the promoters of the project will be more difficult to be heard.
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That the procedure is successful or not, the State will therefore have to reckon with an opposition reinvigorated by this episode, while the timing of the referendum could run until 2021. That is, shortly before the next presidential election, a period where the records of the most explosive, such as ADP, are traditionally set aside. A connoisseur of the folder explained in the Figaro that “politically, continue to defend the privatization project so that many millions of French could mean their opposition” would be difficult, in particular in the aftermath of the crisis of the “yellow vests”, who have often blamed the executive for his lack of listening.
