MADRID, 8 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) –
Social Security will add some 90,000 new members this month compared to September, which will place the total number of employed people above 20.8 million workers, while unemployment will rise by around 40,000 people, to 2.76 million unemployed. , according to forecasts managed by The Adecco Group Institute, the study service of the Adecco group.
If these estimates are met, Social Security would once again exceed the level of 20.8 million average affiliates in October that it reached last May and maintained for three months, until the sharp decline in August, which placed the average employed in 20.70 million people.
After gaining an average of 18,295 contributors in September, up to 20.72 million members, Adecco projects a monthly increase of close to 90,000 people for October, which would bring the total number of employed people to 20.81 million people.
In year-on-year terms, it estimates that the year-on-year growth in average affiliation will be 2.6%, which would mean the creation of 526,000 jobs between October 2022 and October 2023.
The historical series for the months of October usually shows increases in membership. In the period 2018-2022, monthly increases in employment of more than 100,000 people were recorded, while in 2017 this increased by just over 94,000 contributors. We would have to go back to 2015 to find an increase in average membership of less than 90,000 people.
Regarding registered unemployment, Adecco predicts that the offices of public employment services will add some 40,000 unemployed in October compared to the previous month, which will place the total number of unemployed at 2.76 million, compared to 2.72 million with which September closed.
“In October, both membership and registered unemployment tend to increase compared to the previous month,” underlines the director of Adecco’s research service, Javier Blasco.
If these forecasts are met, unemployment would link its third consecutive monthly rise in October and would break with two years of declines in the months of October, since in 2022 and 2021 it fell by 27,027 and 734 people, respectively. With the exception of those two years, unemployment registered monthly increases of more than 40,000 people in every October of the last ten years.
In year-on-year values, Adecco estimates that in October there will be a year-on-year decrease in unemployment of 5.3%, which would be equivalent to 154,892 fewer unemployed than in the same month of 2022.
The latest data from the Ministry of Labor, published this week, reflect that unemployment rose by 19,768 people in September and the total number of unemployed remained above the barrier of 2.7 million people, from which it had fallen by first time in 15 years last June.
However, Adecco points out that if the 490,300 who claim to have “limited availability” and other situations, as well as workers in ERTE and permanent-discontinuous workers, were added to the 2.72 million unemployed at the end of September, unemployment , in its broadest definition, would have been around 3.5 million people in September.
Adecco’s forecast is that using this concept, the broad one, unemployment will rebound in October to 3.67 million people.
