The New England Patriots are old hands at dealing with Super Bowl hoopla, while the Atlanta Falcons are newcomers to the ultimate game. Atlanta is making its first Super Bowl appearance in 18 years, but it will be the seventh Super Bowl berth for the Patriots since the 2001 season.
Here’s a look at what to expect, who to watch and which numbers could be the keys to victory in Super Bowl LI.
1. Can the Patriots neutralize Falcons receiver Julio Jones?
Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler saved the Patriots’ 28-24 Super Bowl victory two years ago with his end-zone interception of Russell Wilson on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 20 seconds remaining. Butler was undrafted out of West Alabama, but he is the Patriots’ best cover corner and could be asked to shadow Jones.
When Butler was 1-on-1 with Steelers Pro Bowl wide receiver Antonio Brown in the AFC title game, he allowed 2 catches for 24 yards on three targets.
Jones, the Falcons’ four-time Pro Bowl wideout, had 9 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns in the NFC title game vs. the Packers. He was second in the NFL regular season with 1,409 receiving yards, and he has AVERAGED 1,624 receiving yards over the past three seasons.
However, in keeping with the Patriots’ penchant of taking away the opponent’s best weapon, Butler will get help defending Jones. Expect Pro Bowl free safety Devin McCourty to make Jones a priority.
Jones is the antithesis of the self-centered, diva-type wide receiver so common in today’s NFL. But when he was asked this week if he thought there was anyone who could cover him 1-on-1, he said: “No, I do not.”
Another option for the Patriots, especially if they decide to double Jones all day, is to assign their other cornerback, Ryan Logan, to Jones, knowing he will have help deep from a safety. That would allow the Patriots to have Butler shadow the Falcons WR2, Mohamed Sanu, and hopefully take him out of the game.
2. Can New England keep pass rusher Vic Beasley off quarterback Tom Brady?
Beasley led the NFL with 15 ½ sacks and tied for the NFL lead with 6 forced fumbles. The Patriots have done an excellent job protecting Brady, and they were No. 6 in fewest sacks allowed per pass play.
Since the Falcons don’t have another major pass-rush threat to complement Beasley — as a team they were just 26th in sack percentage — the Patriots will be able to provide help for right tackle Marcus Cannon. Tight end Martellus Bennett, the former Bear, may be asked to help Cannon keep Beasley off Brady.
At 6-feet-6 and 275 pounds, Bennett can be an excellent blocker when the mood suits him.
But Beasley doesn’t necessarily have to sack Brady, as long as he gets to him in time to knock him down a couple of times or force him to throw early, thereby disrupting the rhythm of New England’s offense.
According to Pro Football Focus, Beasley converted 28.6 percent of his quarterback pressures into sacks, nearly double the 15.1 percent average for all edge rushers. He had 14½ sacks in the final 12 games of the regular season but has none in two playoff games.
According to Pro Football Focus, Cannon has not allowed a sack since the season opener, when he gave up 2.
3. Will the Patriots’ defense play up to its No. 1 ranking vs. the NFL’s highest-scoring team?
Despite having few household names, the Patriots’ defense allowed a league-low 15.6 points per game. During their current nine-game winning streak the Patriots have allowed an average of 13.3 points.
However, most of those games were against bad teams with subpar quarterbacks. The list of patsies included the 2-14 49ers and Colin Kaepernick (90.7 passer rating), the 5-11 Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick (69.6 passer rating) twice, the 4-12 Rams and rookie Jared Goff (63.6), the 9-7 Broncos and Trevor Siemian (84.6), and the 10-6 Dolphins with backup Matt Moore (82.5).
Then, in the playoffs, they faced the Texans and Brock Osweiler (72.2 passer rating), who was a huge disappointment all season. Even in the AFC title game, the Patriots faced a Steelers team that was mostly without injured bell cow running back Le’Veon Bell, who had just 6 carries for 20 yards before leaving the game.
The Patriots have not faced an offense as explosive and diverse as that of the Falcons. Atlanta was No. 5 in rushing yards and No. 3 in passing yards, the only NFL team in the top five in both categories.
But, if there is a flaw in the Falcons’ offense, it’s protecting quarterback Matt Ryan, who was sacked 37 times, second most in his nine-year career. The Falcons were 24th in sacks allowed per pass. But the Patriots’ defense was 18th in sacks, and no individual had more than DE Trey Flowers’ 7.
In the Patriots’ previous six Super Bowl games with coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady, none have been decided by more than 4 points. The 4 victories were by 3, 3, 3 and 4 points. The 2 losses were by 4 and 3 points. … The Falcons have won six straight games, scoring an average of 39 points. … The Patriots have won nine straight, scoring an average of 30 points. … The Falcons have scored a touchdown on their first possession in eight straight games. … The Falcons’ running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman was the league’s most productive, combining for 2,482 yards from scrimmage and 24 touchdowns in the regular season. … Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount had a career year in 2016, leading the league with 18 rushing TDs and rushing for a personal-best 1,161 yards. … The Falcons have four players on their active roster with Super Bowl experience; the Patriots have 22. … Belichick will be coaching in his seventh Super Bowl with the Patriots, the most of any head coach in NFL history. Belichick also holds the record for most postseason wins all time by a head coach (25).
RB Tevin Coleman (Tinley Park) attended Oak Forest High School and was a third-round pick in 2015 out of Indiana.
RS-WR Eric Weems is a 10-year veteran special-teams standout, who was with the Bears from 2013-14.
LB LaRoy Reynolds played in 13 games with the Bears in 2015.
Special-teams coordinator Keith Armstrong held the same post with the Bears from 1997-2000.
National scout Phil Emery was Bears general manager from 2012-14. Defensive-line coach Bryan Cox played linebacker for the Bears in 1996-97.
Familiar Patriots:
Backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo is an Arlington Heights native who attended Rolling Meadows H.S. and Eastern Illinois before he was drafted in the second round in 2014.
LB Rob Ninkovich is a Blue Island native who also lived in New Lenox and attended Lincoln-Way East H.S., Joliet Junior College and Purdue.
TE Martellus Bennett played for the Bears from 2013-15. DE Chris Long is the older bother of Bears OL Kyle Long.
LB Shea McClellin played his first four years with the Bears after Phil Emery drafted him in the first round (19th overall) in 2012.
Backup OL Ted Karras was a sixth-round draft pick out of Illinois last year. His grandfather, Ted, played on the Bears 1963 championship team.
Backup TE Greg Scruggs played in four games with the Bears in 2015-16).
RB coach Ivan Fears held the same job with the Bears from 1993-98.
Super Bowl LI
Atlanta Falcons (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-2) at Houston’s NRG Stadium, 5:30 p.m. Sunday on FOX.
Line: Patriots by 3
Over-under: 58 ½
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