Sometimes NBA trades happen when you least expect it.
During the All-Star Game, for instance, when the Sacramento Kings sent DeMarcus Cousins to New Orleans, even after the player and team talked about wanting to sign an extension.
What’s next, Jimmy Butler to Boston? Some team sitting below the Bulls in the East making a deal that changes everything? Or maybe the Bulls finding a way to improve that ineffective bench?
The NBA trade deadline arrives Thursday. The next few days may bring fireworks or end with the landscape essentially unchanged. For now, let’s try to answer some questions:
Q: Could the Bulls actually trade Jimmy Butler this week?
A: Anything is possible, but he’s probably not going anywhere. There’s no evidence the Bulls have actively pursued trading Butler.
It may be true that management is not convinced he’s the right guy to build around. After all, the Bulls have a 28-29 record right now. He’s arguably a top-10 NBA player, and at 27 he should have at least five great years ahead of him.
Q: Then why is Butler’s name in so many rumors?
A: Celtics GM Danny Ainge won a championship in 2008 with a big three, and evidence suggests he is eyeing Butler to join Isaiah Thomas and Al Horford to form the sequel. Boston is playing well now, but Ainge may believe he needs another star to be a serious championship contender.
And the Celtics have plenty of assets. If it gets to the point where Boston offers its two Brooklyn draft picks (swap this year, no restrictions next year), plus a useful player such as Avery Bradley or Marcus Smart, the Bulls might feel like it’s an offer they can’t refuse.
Q: Wouldn’t trading Butler mean a total rebuild?
A: Yes, and that’s why I don’t think the Bulls will do it. Most Bulls fans don’t want to relive the dismal 1999-2004 years, and chairman Jerry Reinsdorf is right there with you.
It’s easy to say the worst place to be in the NBA is middle of the pack, but it is possible for a team to improve with the right moves. An example is Houston, which went 41-41 last year and is now 40-18.
In rebuild mode, the Bulls would be trading Butler for some high picks and hoping they can find another Butler in the draft. Does that really make any sense?
Q: But couldn’t the Bulls get a great player in the draft?
A: There’s a chance, but let’s check recent NBA history and try to find a top-10 draft pick who is now the best player on a good team, say, top four in either conference.
You have to go back five years to the 2012 draft to come close. There’s Damien Lillard, best player on a team that was good, but is out of the playoffs now. Bradley Beal is the second-best player on a good team.
In 2011, Kyrie Irving was the top pick. He’s doing well, but who knows where his career would be if LeBron James hadn’t returned to Cleveland? San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard is the best player on a good team, but he was the No. 15 pick in 2011. The Bulls could keep Butler and land the No. 15 pick.
If you go back seven years to 2010, you can find two guys who are now the best player on a good team, John Wall and Gordon Hayward, while Paul George met that qualification a few years ago.
You like those odds? Of course not. There are several reasons not to rebuild — there’s no guarantee it will pay off, it would ruin Dwyane Wade’s diminishing window of success, and the Bulls like to keep the United Center full.
Q: Will the Bulls make a trade this week?
A: My feeling is they’ll do something, probably a smaller deal to improve the bench.
Q: Why did Sacramento trade Cousins? Did the Bulls make an offer?
A: The Kings talked about keeping Cousins long-term, but obviously changed their mind. They could have pulled the trigger on a $200-million extension this summer and that’s a big commitment for a guy who didn’t come close to making the playoffs in his first six seasons. Sacramento’s horrible draft choices were a bigger reason for the team’s struggles (the Kings took Jimmer Fredette instead of Klay Thompson and Kawhi Leonard in ’11), but the team decided to start over.
The Bulls say they value character, so I doubt if they made much of an effort to trade for Cousins.
Q: How will New Orleans fare with Cousins and Anthony Davis together?
A: It’s going to be strange, in a perimeter-dominated league, for the two best centers to play together. It will probably look something like Memphis, with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Both Cousins and Davis can play inside or out.
Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore are the guards, with probably Omri Casspi or Solomon Hill at small forward. It’s a thin roster, but an interesting experiment. The Pelicans are just 2 ½ games out of the last playoff spot in the West.
Q: Is it time to cancel the NBA All-Star Game?
A: Yes, without question.
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