The Atlanta Falcons face a tall order in Super Bowl LI, taking on one of the greatest dynasties in sports history. But despite being underdogs against the New England Patriots Sunday, the NFC South champions have a real chance to pull off the upset and win their first title in franchise history.
Atlanta is playing just as well as New England, having won six games in a row, including five by at least 16 points. They won their division with the NFC’s second-best record, and they were second in the league with six Pro Bowl selections. The Patriots finished with three more wins, but their schedule wasn’t nearly as difficult as the one the Falcons played.
There are a few key reasons why the Falcons will beat the Patriots in the 2017 Super Bowl.
Historic Atlanta Offense
There’s no arguing that the Falcons have a below-average defense, but the team has still managed to win 13 of 18 games this season. That’s because they have the NFL’s best offense, and only a few teams in league history have been better at scoring points.
Atlanta led the league with 33.8 points per game, putting them eighth all-time. The Falcons have been even better in the playoffs, scoring 36 points against the Seattle Seahawks’ vaunted defense and dropping 44 points on the Green Bay Packers. They’ve been incredibly consistent, scoring at least 23 points in 17 of 18 games, almost guaranteeing that the Super Bowl will be a shootout.
New England ranks first in points allowed, but facing elite defenses hasn’t slowed down Atlanta this season. Playing five games against teams that rank in the top nine in total defense, the Falcons are averaging 32.6 points per contest.
Quarterback Matt Ryan is the likely MVP winner, and he’s surrounded by some of the league’s best weapons. Julio Jones is inarguably a top-three wide receiver, and he ranks first in NFL history in yards per game. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combine to make up one of the league’s most dangerous backfields, and Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel give Atlanta an extremely deep receiving corps.
Overrated New England Defense
With the league’s No.1 scoring defense and a defensive mastermind at head coach, there’s no arguing that New England has a top defense. There is a question, however, regarding how good the unit actually is.
Despite what some of the overall numbers say, the Patriots’ defense might get exposed for being overrated in Super Bowl LI. New England didn’t have the NFL’s best defense in the 2016 regular season—the Denver Broncos, New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks were probably all better—and they aren’t nearly as good on the defensive side as last year’s Super Bowl champion Broncos were.
Much of New England’s defensive success comes from its competition. The Patriots were fortunate to face a litany of mediocre quarterbacks this year, playing the likes of Brock Osweiler and Ryan Fitzpatrick multiple times. New England hasn’t faced a quarterback that ranks in the top 10 in passer rating, and Russell Wilson, probably the best signal caller the Patriots have come up against, led the Seahawks to a 31-24 victory at Gillette Stadium.
New England did play well against Ben Roethlisberger in the playoffs, though he was without Le’Veon Bell for most of the game. Matt Ryan has the NFL’s top passer rating, and he’ll give the Patriots a challenge that they haven’t had all year.
QB Matchup
Matt Ryan, pictured during a Super Bowl LI practice session on Feb. 1, 2017 in Houston, gives the Atlanta Falcons a chance to upset the New England Patriots. Photo: Getty Images
Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time, and he gives the Patriots an advantage at the sport’s most important position every time he steps on the field. While that edge will still exist Sunday, it’ll be much smaller than it’s been all season.
Brady had another brilliant season, throwing 28 touchdowns and just two interceptions, going 13-1 in the regular season and postseason combined. But there’s no denying that Ryan was the season’s best quarterback that started every game, and he should be able to go toe-to-toe with the future Hall of Famer Sunday.
Ryan’s consistency has probably been his most impressive attribute. Even someone like Aaron Rodgers, who might be the league’s top quarterback on his best day, wasn’t able to be as good as often as Ryan was in 2016. He only had one game that could be described as below-average, and he’s managed to raise his level of play in two postseason games, throwing for 730 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions.
Brady’s two Super Bowl losses came when Eli Manning was able to match him with big plays down the stretch, and Ryan is more than capable of doing the same.
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