When the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons meet in Super Bowl LI, they could produce one of the most exciting title games in history. Both oddsmakers and the betting public seem to agree, making the over/under higher than all of the previous 50 Super Bowls.
The previous record was set in 2010 when Super Bowl XLIV had an over/under of 57. Sunday’s game has easily surpassed that with a total of 59 at most sportsbooks as of Friday, via OddsShark. Some betting websites have the over/under at 58.5, though the number likely won’t fall much lower, if at all, before kickoff.
It’s easy to see why the over/under is so high. Atlanta led the NFL in the regular season with 33.8 points per game, which marked the eighth-highest scoring average in NFL history. New England was third in points per game, and both teams increased their scoring averages in the postseason. Matt Ryan and Tom Brady have been the year’s two best quarterbacks, and they could both put up big numbers in Houston.
Super Bowl XXIX between the San Francisco 49ers and San Diego Chargers was the highest-scoring game in Super Bowl history. The 49ers entered the game as the biggest Super Bowl favorites of all time, and they cruised to a 49-26 victory.
Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons scored 44 points in the NFC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome on Jan. 22, 2017 in Atlanta, and they could be part of one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls in NFL history. Photo: Getty Images
Super Bowl XLIV didn’t live up to the hype with the New Orleans Saints beating the Indianapolis Colts 31-17. Three of the last four Super Bowls have gone over the total, including New England’s 28-24 victory over the Seattle Seahawks in 2015. None of the last four Super Bowls that have featured a total of 50 or more have gone over, and the teams have combined to score just 38.5 points in those games.
While Atlanta is used to playing in high-scoring affairs—their last eight games have totaled 49 points or more—that hasn’t been the norm for New England. The Patriots have allowed the fewest points in the NFL, holding their last five opponents to 17 points or fewer. Only six of their regular-season games featured a combined score of at least 50 points.
New England is averaging 22.5 points per game in six trips to the Super Bowl during the Brady-Belichick era. Atlanta scored 19 points in their one Super Bowl appearance.
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