TAMPA – It’s not going to go how you expect.
That is hardly the cheery, pie-eyed optimism associated with pitchers and catchers reporting and the first day of spring training. But it is not going to go how you expect with the Yankees and their most concerted youth movement in a quarter of a century. That doesn’t mean it has to go badly.
If I had told you in 1993 that the Yankees were going to be dynastic from 1996-2001, you would have bet Brien Taylor and Ruben Rivera would anchor the greatness. Taylor blew out his shoulder and never spent a day in the majors, Rivera failed to translate great tools into on-field success.
This is the chaos theory of baseball, what Yankee GM Brian Cashman called “the beauty and the danger of the sport.”
Consider that in the 28 years Baseball America has done a top-100 prospect list, the Yankees have had four top-three prospects: Taylor, Rivera, Joba Chamberlain and Jesus Montero, who ranked third in 2011 behind Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.
Taylor and Rivera were the only Yankees to be in the top three twice. Taylor was the only Yankee who was No. 1 overall, in 1992, and he was second in 1993. Rivera was No. 2 in 1995, behind Alex Rodriguez and ahead of Chipper Jones and Derek Jeter. He was No. 3 in 1996, right behind Paul Wilson. Yep, it is not going to go how you expect.
“That is why the more [prospects] the merrier,” Cashman said. “There are exciting ceilings here, but no guarantees.”
This Yankees camp, which opened Monday, has the best collection of prospects since the pre-dynasty era – seven members of Baseball America’s top 100. It is the reason for interest, intrigue and excitement.
But the main architect of that last dynasty, Gene Michael, unsolicited used the word “lucky” a half-dozen times in a 15-minute chat about a key ingredient in constructing those great Yankees squads.
“We got lucky,” said Michael, who remains one of the Yankees’ most trusted talent evaluators. “I could have traded each of the [Core Four] guys or Bernie [Williams] and didn’t. [Mariano] Rivera was available in the [November 1992] expansion draft [for the Marlins and Rockies] and never got picked. Remember, Rivera wasn’t Rivera until he reached the majors, and it is just lucky that we didn’t trade him before he began throwing well.”
Or as Cashman – who was the assistant farm director based in Tampa back then – recalled, “Ruben Rivera was the most important Rivera in the franchise, not [his cousin] Mariano.”
Jeter and Pettitte were top-100 Baseball America prospects; Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada never were. Neither was Robinson Cano – the best player the Yankees have produced since then.
It is a reminder that these lists and the buzz that comes from them are fun and insightful, but not infallible. They are guidelines, not gospel. Yankees fans should be enthused about the possibilities. But also realistic. There is probably never going to be anything that approaches the Core Four again.
One of the keys to the dynasty years was that Jeter, Pettitte and Rivera flourished pretty much from Day 1, preventing a yo-yo to the minors or them being involved in trade discussions. Williams needed three seasons to grow into his prime form, often playing with a bewildered air during those formative years. It mainly coincided with George Steinbrenner’s suspension – another stroke of luck.
We will see with all the talk of patience if similar growing pains will be tolerated. How many of you have already formed an opinion of Aaron Judge after 95 strikeout-filled major league plate appearances? Most players will not be Jeter, brilliant and unflappable from the outset. This is not necessarily a linear exercise. At the end of the 2015 season, a Yankees fan would have bet on Greg Bird and Luis Severino leading the youth movement. Bird missed all of 2016 due to needing shoulder surgery. Severino bombed as a starter.
What is the organization’s patience for them, or if Gary Sanchez takes a step backward or if Gleyber Torres reminds everyone he really is just 20? The Yankees have done right by turning so fully to stocking their system with as many high-end prospects as possible. This is compulsory now with better drug testing and the need for payroll maneuverability and a quest for roster diversification.
It brings excitement and energy to this Yankees camp, but there will be Ruben Riveras in this group who will disappoint and Mariano Riveras who will come out of nowhere, and if the Yankees hit on even four or five that are keepers over the next two seasons, that would be a huge boost for their future.
“You try to get as many as you can,” Cashman said, “and then the game will separate the men from the boys.”
Because it just is not going to go how you expect.
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