MADRID, 28 Abr. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The 12-month Euribor, the index to which most variable mortgages in Spain are referenced, has risen to 3.757% in the monthly rate, compared to 3.647% in March, and continues at its highest since November 2008, when it stood at 4.424%.
The April level also means that the index has continued with the upward trend that began in January 2022, when it was still in negative territory, marking -0.477%. However, it was in April 2022 when the Euribor already began to register positive rates, standing at 0.013%, and since then it has not stopped advancing until it reached the average of 3.757% for this month of April, spurred on by the increases in interest rates that the European Central Bank (ECB) has been applying since July 2022.
However, real estate market experts point out that this index is moderating its advance. From iAhorro they highlight that if between January and February, the increase in the Euribor was almost two tenths, between February and March it was 1.2 tenths and between March and April, 1.1 tenths.
In this way, the director of iAhorro Mortgages, Simone Colombelli, foresees a period of stabilization, which could “be close”, although he believes that 4% will be reached before, “a value that we could already see in the daily data for May or in the June average”, he predicts.
In fact, the index has moved in the last days of April around 3.8%, reaching 3.9% on April 25, to moderate again and close this Friday at 3.880%.
XTB analyst Joaquín Robles also expects the Euribor to continue rising over the coming months, albeit at a “slower” rate. He points out that he will continue to be conditioned by the movements made by the ECB, which will hold its next meeting on May 4.
“For the next three ECB meetings, an increase of 1% is expected, which could be distributed in 50 basis points in May and 25 basis points in June and July. Although these decisions will continue to be conditioned by the next inflation data, it is expected that interest rates can reach 4.50% in mid-summer. Given this environment, we expect the Euribor to exceed 4% during the month of May”, explains this analyst.
For her part, the co-founder of HelpMyCash, Olivia Feldman, points out that contrary to what happened in 2022, this year “it is difficult” to forecast how much interest rates can rise, how fast they will do it and how far they will go to stop”. “Last year, the ECB was clear that to stop inflation it had to have a bullish policy. Now, although her target is the same, rates are already at high levels, so she must be careful to avoid wreaking havoc on the economy,” she added.
Asufin points out that the uncertainty due to the “digestion of the rapid rise in rates” by certain entities in the United States has led to a moderation of the Euribor and, for the moment, the ‘top’ of 4% has not been reached. “We expect to reach it around the month of June, to continue at those levels until the last quarter of the year, in which we could already see the drop in the index,” says the association.
What the experts do agree on is to indicate that although the Euribor has eased, its rise will be noticeable among those mortgaged with variable-rate loans.
With the provisional average of 3.757%, a person who has a 30-year variable mortgage of 150,000 euros and with a differential of 0.99% plus Euribor will suffer an increase in their mortgage payment of around 300 euros. In absolute terms, it will go from paying about 483 euros to about 781 per month, which is equivalent to an additional annual outlay of around 3,570 euros.
With the same conditions, a mortgage of 300,000 euros of capital pending amortization and 30 years ahead of payment would have to assume a monthly increase of 596 euros, which means around 7,158 additional euros per year.
