Reduces the GDP estimate for 2024 to 1.6%, two tenths less
MADRID, 16 Nov. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The Funcas panel has raised the growth forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023 by two tenths, up to 2.4%, as a result of a mechanical adjustment that responds to the upward revision of the estimates for 2021 and 2022 and the data for the third quarter of this year from the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
However, the Funcas panelists have assured that the figures confirm a quarterly profile of “deceleration”, with an increase in GDP of 0.3% between July and September, and 0.2% for the fourth quarter of the year, after advances of 0.6% and 0.4% in the first and second quarters of the year, respectively.
Regarding the composition of growth in 2023, the contribution of the foreign sector will be 0.7 points, three tenths less compared to the previous Panel, and that of national demand will be 1.7 points, five tenths more in relation to the consensus of September.
Looking ahead to 2024, the GDP growth forecast is reduced to an average of 1.6%, two tenths less compared to the previous Panel. By quarter, growth of 0.4% is expected in the first quarter, followed by growth of 0.5% in the rest.
The Funcas panel expects that in 2024 the contribution from the foreign sector will be “slightly negative”, while national demand will add 1.7 percentage points, two tenths less than in the previous Panel.
The forecast of the average annual inflation rate for 2023 made by the Funcas panelists rises one tenth, to 3.7%, while that corresponding to underlying inflation rises two tenths, to 5.9%.
Regarding 2024, both the forecast for the general rate and the underlying rate rise to 3.3%. Thus, the expected annual rates of the general index for December 2023 and December 2024 are estimated at 3.9% and 2.7%, respectively.
Regarding the labor market forecast, the Funcas panelists have revised employment growth upwards, up to 2.3%, but have maintained it at 1.6% for the next year. Likewise, they have revised downward the forecasts for unemployment, so an average annual rate of 12.2% is expected in 2023 and 11.7% in 2024.
Regarding the evolution of public finances, the panelists foresee a reduction in the public deficit in 2023 and 2024 of the same magnitude as that predicted in the September Panel, with a negative balance of public accounts of 4.1% for this year and 3.6% the next, above the official target of 3%.
In an external environment that remains “unfavorable”, the panelists predict that interest rates will remain at high levels for longer than expected.
In this way, they predict that, within a year, the Euribor will still exceed 3.6%, one tenth more than in the September valuation, while the yield on the 10-year Spanish public debt is expected to be close to 3. .5%, two tenths more.
