French voters are getting ready to cast their votes in the final round of a snap parliamentary election this weekend. In the first round, it seemed like the far-right National Rally (RN) group was going to come out on top in France’s National Assembly. However, parties from the center-right and left have united to try to stop the RN’s progress.
President Emmanuel Macron’s “Together” alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) have urged voters to reject the RN in the second round. They have even withdrawn candidates in many areas where another candidate had a better chance of beating the RN. By giving voters a clear choice and fewer candidates, the hope is that people will choose the non-RN candidate.
Experts believe that while the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, may not secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly, they are likely to gather the most votes. The strategy of the pro-Macron and left-wing parties is to make it harder for the RN to win a majority.
However, it remains to be seen how voters will react to being directed on who to vote for by the political elite. There are mixed messages from different political figures on how to vote. Some suggest voting against the RN, while others advise against voting for far-left candidates.
A recent poll suggested that voters might lean towards centrist or left-wing candidates over the RN. But when faced with a choice between far-left and far-right candidates, opinions were more divided. Analysts caution that the national poll data might not reflect the local dynamics in each constituency.
After the anti-RN alliance was formed, a poll indicated that the RN and its allies could win 190 to 220 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for a majority. The center-right Republicans and the leftist NFP alliance are also expected to secure seats. Forming a government may be challenging if a minority government is the best-case scenario.
There is speculation about the possibility of a hung parliament, with a 35% chance according to Teneo. Prime Minister Attal suggested that moderate parties could collaborate on a case-by-case basis, but forming a coalition may be complex due to policy differences.
Emmanuel Macron called for the snap election after his party suffered losses in the European Parliament elections. Macron’s decision raised questions about his motives, with some speculating that he wanted the RN to experience governing challenges. Macron may be banking on voters fearing a far-right government.
As the final round of the election approaches, the political landscape in France is uncertain. The outcome of the vote will determine the future direction of French politics. Voters will play a crucial role in shaping the composition of the National Assembly and the government that will lead the country.