MADRID, 10 Nov. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The Ibex 35, the main indicator of the Spanish market, has had its second positive week by closing with an increase of 0.84%, which has allowed it to finish at the edge of 9,400 points, a level at which it managed to finish in the yesterday and which had not been seen since the end of September.
The selective consolidates the strong advances of last week – then it rose 4.19%, the best weekly figure since last March – in one that has been marked by the trickle of results typical of the end of the season business results, the few macroeconomic references and the statements of central bankers in different forums.
Thus, the Ibex has managed to recover all the ground lost after the six weeks of closures with falls since the end of September and throughout October – in that period it lost up to 6.6% and stood at 8,900 integers -, in such a way which, so far this year, has registered a cumulative advance of 13.88%.
The markets have ended the week conditioned by the statements of the central banks: on the one hand, the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the United States, Jerome Powell, stated yesterday that perhaps monetary policy is not yet sufficiently tense, awakening new fears of a rate hike.
“Although the market grants a minimum probability of an additional increase of 25 basis points, everything continues to point to high rates for a long time,” analysts at Renta 4 have pointed out in a market report, while those at Banca March have pointed out that, despite this speech, “the rate pause is now a reality” and fixed income remains, in his opinion, the asset with the best return-risk ratio.
Furthermore, this afternoon it was learned in the United States that 12-month inflation expectations have risen to their highest levels in the last year, according to the University of Michigan consumer confidence index prepared for November.
For her part, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, reiterated this Friday that if interest rates are maintained at their current levels of 4.50% for a “sufficient” time, the inflation rate will return. to 2% that defines price stability, although it has recognized that prices could rebound in the coming months due to the extinction of the energy base effect.
On the side of the ‘macro’ agenda, in these five days the services PMIs have stood out, which, for Spain, have shown an acceleration in October for the second consecutive month, while in the eurozone the sector has deteriorated again. Also in the eurozone, it has been published that retail sales in the eurozone fell 0.3% in September, one tenth more than expected, in a monthly rate.
At the same time, confirmation has reached the market in second reading that German inflation stood at 3.8% in October, which represents seven tenths less than the 4.5% in September and the lowest year-on-year increase in prices since August 2021.
For its part, in the United Kingdom the GDP has shown that the British economy did not experience any growth between July and September compared to the previous three months as a consequence, mainly, of the contraction of activity in services. However, compared to the third quarter of 2022, the economy grew by 0.6%.
Regarding the business world – and beyond the publication of accounts of companies such as Telefónica, Amadeus, Colonial or Cellnex – Telefónica has stood out after having launched last Tuesday a voluntary public takeover bid (OPA) on shares representing a maximum of 28.19% of the share capital and voting rights of its German subsidiary, Telefónica Deutschland, of which it currently owns, directly or indirectly, 71.81%. The amount of the operation would be around 1,970 million.
Given this situation, in the weekly count, the advances of Amadeus (6.81%), Indra (4.64%) have stood out; Rovi (3.78%); Banco Sabadell (2.84%), Inditex (2.21%), BBVA (2.15%) and Caixabank (1.85%).
On the other hand, the worst weekly evolution has been led by ArcelorMittal (-6.39%), Colonial (-5.45%), Solaria (-4.9%) and Acciona Energía (-3.77%).
European stock markets ended the week in a mixed manner: Frankfurt rose 0.3% while Paris lost 0.03%; Milan 0.59% and London 0.77%. For its part, the Dow Jones, a Wall Street indicator, provisionally remained at the same level as last Friday’s close (the S
In the raw materials market, Brent crude oil, the reference for the Old Continent, fell around 4%, to 81.5 dollars a barrel, while the Texas WTI barrel lost 4.1%, to 77. 2 dollars a barrel. In that sense, the price of both fell, respectively, to the levels of August and July, leaving behind the increases of October due to the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
In the currency market, the euro fell 0.53% compared to the “greenback” in the week, to 1.0674 dollars, while the interest on the long-term Spanish bond closed at 3.758% after adding seven points basics and with the risk premium (the differential with the German bond) at 104.4 points.
The markets will focus, for next week, on the economic forecasts, GDP, inflation and employment data of the European Union (EU), as well as the final inflationary data in October of its main economies, while that consumer confidence (ZEW) for November in Germany will also be known.
Inflationary readings in October from the United States will also be known, as well as retail sales, while raw materials markets will pivot on the monthly reports from the OPEC alliance and the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as inventories of countries like the United States itself.
