MADRID, 1 Dic. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The Ibex 35 remains unstoppable in its particular early ‘Christmas rally’ and this Friday it concluded its fifth consecutive week on the rise with a rise of 2.03%, reaching 10,140.8 points, maximums not seen since May 2018. motivated by the increasingly encouraged perspective – and even participated in by the comments of some members of the central banks – that interest rates will be cut next year.
This scenario would also occur in a context marked by the progressive fall in inflation and a mild economic slowdown that would avoid recession and sharp falls in economic activity, employment and business profits.
In that sense, the Ibex 35 has gained strong momentum in recent weeks and yesterday closed November with an accumulated advance of 11.54%, its best monthly rate figure since November 2020; while, so far in 2023, the Spanish market has appreciated by 23.23%.
The aforementioned optimistic forecasts of investors have been sustained this week with the publication of inflationary data and economic activity throughout the world, such as that year-on-year inflation in the euro zone has moderated more than expected in November, until 2.4%, half a percentage point below the previous month’s figure and its lowest reading since July 2021.
Furthermore, it was published yesterday that the eurozone unemployment rate stood at 6.5% last October, the lowest in the entire historical series, where it has remained stable since last March, despite the economic slowdown. , while in the European Union as a whole it remained stable at 6% for the fifth consecutive month.
For its part, the market also learned the day before that PCE inflation in the United States – one of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) most reference measures when guiding its monetary policy – in October has moderated to 3%. in October and the underlying has fallen to 3.5%.
This Friday the selective has been boosted by data from the manufacturing sector of China, the eurozone and the United States, and without being affected by the resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict after the truce last week.
Specifically, China’s manufacturing PMI index (Caixin) has rebounded more than expected in November, rising by 1.3 points, to levels of 50.7; that of the eurozone has revealed the deterioration of the manufacturing sector (PMI) for the seventeenth consecutive month, although at a less intense pace than in the previous month.
For its part, the activity of Spain’s manufacturing sector has continued to deteriorate in the month of November, extending the sequence of decline to eight consecutive months, although at a lower rate than the previous month.
For its part, the manufacturing sector (PMI) in the United States in November has shown a deterioration that has moved from expansionary to recessive territory.
In this context, in the weekly calculation the increases in Merlin (8.83%), Solaria (6.19%), ArcelorMittal (4.99%), Acciona (4.62%) and Telefónica (4.62%) stood out. %), which has also stood out on the business agenda for the announcement of an ERE that could affect 2,500 workers.
On the other hand, the worst weekly evolution has been for Mapfre (-3.15%), Fluidra (-1.57%); Grifols (-0.99%), Caixabank (-0.99%), Indra (-0.35%) and Bankinter (-0.25%).
European stock markets have also closed the week with gains: London has added 0.55%; Paris 0.73%; Milan 1.69% and Frankfurt 2.3%.
At closing time in the Old Continent, the price of a barrel of Brent quality oil, a reference for the Old Continent, stood at 81.1 dollars, 0.8% more than last Friday’s close, while that of Texas appreciated 0.98%, to 76.27 dollars.
Banca March experts have commented in a report that, after the meeting held yesterday by OPEC, in which production cuts were extended and Brazil was incorporated as a member, the group of crude oil producing countries has not achieved the impact desired (some States, such as Angola, have rejected supply cuts).
In the foreign exchange market, the price of the euro fell 0.55% in the week against the dollar, to 1.0877 ‘greenbacks’, while in the debt market, the interest required on the Spanish bond at 10 years has closed at 3.353% after subtracting almost thirty basis points in the week – the equivalent of almost three tenths -, with the risk premium (the differential with the German bond) at 99.5 points.
For its part, the price of Troy gold rose almost 3% in the week and the ounce was trading at $2,060, the highest since last May (then the safe haven asset was affected by the tension in the Ukrainian conflict and the clashes derived from the US regional banking crisis as well as the bankruptcy of Credit Suisse last March).
Likewise, the precious metal is trading on the edge and heading towards its all-time highs of March 7, 2022, when the ounce touched $2,075, beginning two weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, it was also around those levels in August 2020 after the outbreak of the pandemic.
