Inflation will stand at 4.1% in June and close the year at 3.8%
MADRID, 26 Mar. (EUROPA PRESS) –
Experts and executives from the PwC Economic and Business Consensus have improved their growth forecasts for the Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by three tenths this year, up to 1.4%, and have estimated economic growth of 2. 1%, after the National Statistics Institute (INE) confirmed this Friday that the Spanish economy grew by 5.5% in 2022, the same as in 2021.
This is clear from the latest report of the PwC Economic and Business Consensus, corresponding to the first quarter of the year, in which more than 400 experts, businessmen and managers are “moderately optimistic” about the evolution of the Spanish economy one year ahead.
The opinion of the panelists moves towards more optimistic positions than in the previous Consensus, corresponding to the fourth quarter of last year. Thus, those who think that the Spanish economy will evolve for the worse next quarter drop from 71.8% to 16.8%, and those who believe that within a year or months it will be better rise by twenty points, to 48%. Only 23% expect more difficulties.
Going into the detail of the evolution of GDP, 70% believe that the next quarter will continue better or the same and within a year this opinion is shared by 75% of the panelists.
For this reason, the panelists have raised their growth forecasts for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an improvement that also coincides with those of the Bank of Spain, which has raised its growth estimate by three tenths, up to 1.6%. by 2023.
Behind this recovery in the perception of experts, businessmen and managers is the economic-financial situation of companies: only 8% rate it as bad, and 92% as good or regular.
This recovery in economic activity will be given, according to the report, by the good evolution of exports, which for 90% of experts, in the next six months will increase or remain stable, since they consider that the competitiveness of companies will continue the Same way.
However, 34% of the panelists assure that the situation of families will worsen in the next quarter, while the majority agree that the situation is “regular”, since they continue to be the ones that are being affected the most by the fall the rate of economic growth compared to 2022.
Regarding job creation, the vision is divided in half, between those who think that it will continue the same or better and those who consider that hiring will decrease.
“Inflation will be another key factor in the coming months,” stressed the report, which states that, by June 2023, it will stand at 4.1% and, at the end of the year, at 3.8%.
Related to the pricing policy, six out of ten interviewees indicate their intention to increase them, compared to 40% who stress that they will not change them, since 67% of the panelists highlight the increase in costs observed, specifically, in energy and transportation.
For their part, 82% expect interest rates to be between 3% and 3.75% next June, data that was extracted before the latest commotions in the US banking sector and European.
The responses of the panelists show a general concern about the situation of the accounts and the increase in public spending. 63.2% say that the state of public finances has not been sufficiently corrected after the 2008 crisis and the pandemic has reached an “excessive imbalance”.
Likewise, 76% estimate that after the anti-crisis package approved at the end of 2022, which included a check for families, a VAT reduction, support for public transport expenses, there is a “high” probability that the expenses of public administrations will exceed the originally budgeted figures. In fact, 54% and 55%, respectively, consider that there is a high risk of failing to meet the deficit targets for 2023 and those planned for 2025 in the convergence plans.
For their part, 77.8% believe that the 2023 General State Budgets are “clearly conditioned” by the election year, just as 70% believe that there may be discretionary deviations from public spending and 65% estimate that the increase of the cost of public debt will be “higher” than the Government’s projections. Likewise, 69% consider that spending on pensions puts the sustainability of public finances at risk.
Finally, 80% of those surveyed believe that independent tax agencies, such as the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), monitor the fiscal convergence of the States of the European Union and contribute to its control.
In general, 62% of experts, businessmen and executives regret that in this legislature of Pedro Sánchez no progress has been made in the tax reform provided for in the White Paper, while the majority also calls for a modification of the Spanish tax regulations so that the personal income tax rate is automatically updated with inflation.
