In the three weeks leading up to the 2016 Super Bowl, a record 144.8 million pounds were consumed nationwide, said Jan DeLyser, vice president of marketing for the California Avocado Commission.
This weekend, Southern Californians will renew their love affair with the NFL’s massively hyped championship and the creamy versatile fruit we have come to associate with the game. But shipments are forecast to fall back to about 105 million pounds this year — dipping to the level of a few years ago, DeLyser said.
We know what you’re thinking, but, no, it’s too soon to blame the soft forecast on President Donald Trump’s proposed 20 percent tariff on Mexican goods, economists say. That wouldn’t come into play until next year’s Super Bowl LII if the tiff between the U.S. and Mexico doesn’t settle down.
This year’s slump reflects an autumn grower strike south of the border and overall disappointing yield for the Mexican crop.
“This year, their crop is off by maybe 25 percent,” said Scott McIntyre, chief executive officer for Temecula-based Sierra Pacific Farms, which tends 2,200 acres of avocados spread from Ventura to San Diego.
Regardless of the forecast, sports fan Kyle Richardson says it wouldn’t be the Super Bowl without a guacamole for chips and a plate of avocado slices for burgers and salads. “It’s more of a condiment than something to just dip your chips in. Nowadays it’s bigger than that,” he said.
Most fans are like Richardson, said Tom Bellamore, avocado commission president. They’re going to rock the gauc on Sunday regardless of the cost or supply.
“Last year, you could almost say, was an oversupply situation,” Bellamore said, adding that store avocado displays this winter may seem sparse by comparison. But he said the fruit should be widely available for Sunday’s scores of super-parties.
‘A California thing’
“Avocados, they’re a California thing,” Richardson offered, while relaxing at Romano’s Sports Bar in downtown Riverside this week.
Indeed, the oft-misunderstood fruit was slower to catch on in places like Chicago, where sports-bar owner Gary Romano grew up. “Only communists eat guacamole back East,” Romano joked. “You don’t put pineapple on pizza and you don’t eat guacamole.” But in recent years, avocados’ popularity has exploded beyond the California state line. National consumption rose from 1.1 pounds per capita in 1989 to 7 pounds in 2014, according to the Ag Marketing Resource Center. Robert Baradaran, a chef instructor at Riverside City College’s Culinary Arts Academy, attributes the rise to a desire to eat healthy, combined with a better understanding of the nutritional benefits. Avocados are high in potassium, protein, vitamins, fiber and antioxidants.
It also helps that millions have developed a taste for the fruit. Though the Super Bowl is the guac-gobbling champ, avocado consumption spikes during Cinco de Mayo and Fourth of July, too. Last year’s Cinco de Mayo shipments reached 135.3 million pounds, making it the second-highest-selling event ever, DeLyser said.
No. 1? The 2016 Super Bowl, of course. “The satisfaction of eating dipped food,” said Baradaran, “goes hand and hand with watching sports.”
Said DeLyser: “It’s a love affair that’s been built over time.”`
California v. Mexico
Mexico is king of ’cados. But California boasts a healthy industry that’s growing.
California growers don’t compete for consumers in winter, as the season for their dominant Hass variety runs April to August. But Golden State farmers – who account for nine in 10 avocados grown domestically – make a splash in spring and summer.
Around July 4, Americans bought 98.7 million pounds. Nearly half – 48.7 million pounds – were from California, DeLyser said.
Avocado production tends to fluctuate. For example, California shipments have ranged from 460 million pounds in 2013 to 262 million pounds in 2015 to 365 million pounds last year, the Hass Avocado Board reports.
Growers anticipated a robust 2017 crop, McIntyre said. Then a Father’s Day heat wave dashed hopes.
“It was 116 degrees up on the hill (above Temecula) on that Sunday,” he said. “And avocados just don’t do well with those kinds of temperatures.”
DeLyser said California expects to produce 200 million pounds this year. But that’s only 10 percent of the American appetite — U.S. consumption exceeds 2 billion pounds each year. Chile and Peru help fill that gap. But by far the most imports come from Mexico.
It’s unclear exactly what would happen if the president did hammer home a 20 percent tariff to help pay for the mammoth wall he vows to build along the Mexican border.
There’s no doubt it would increase prices, said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles economist and director of UC Riverside’s Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.
“They have kind of backed off of the tariff idea,” Thornberg said. “Somebody pointed out that if you put a tariff on imports, it’s Americans who are going to be paying for that wall.”
But if it were adopted, McIntyre said, the tariff would likely not reduce imports of Mexican avocados.
Citing low labor and water costs in Mexico, McIntyre said much room would remain for growers there to make profits.
Temecula grower Ben Drake said a tariff, however, could boost California growers’ competitive position.
“It would help us tremendously,” Drake said. “It would at least start to level out the playing field.”
Top California avocado-producing counties
Percentages represent share of statewide crop
1. Ventura, 39 percent
2. San Diego, 29 percent
3. Santa Barbara, 13 percent
4. San Luis Obispo, 10 percent
5. Riverside, 6 percent
Avocado Facts
• California produces about 90 percent of the nation’s crop.
• The U.S. consumes more than 2 billion pounds annually.
• Avocados are imported from Mexico, Chile, Peru, Dominican Republic and New Zealand.
Sources: California Avocado Commission, Hass Avocado Board
A Guacamole Recipe
Ingredients:
4 ripe Haas avocados
3-4 tablespoons fresh lime juice
Kosher salt
1 cup diced tomatoes + extra for garnish
1-2 teaspoons finely diced serrano chile (with seeds), stem remove
¼ cup finely shredded cilantro (reserve leaves for garnish)
¾ cup diced white or Spanish onion
Instructions:
Slice avocado in half, lengthwise, and remove pit.
Using a spoon, scoop out flesh and place in a bowl.
Add lime juice and season to taste with salt. Stir gently but do not mash. Add tomatoes, chile, onion, and cilantro; stir gently.
Taste for seasoning and adjust, if necessary. Serve immediately.
Chef’s note: Do not make guacamole more than half an hour before serving, to prevent the avocados from turning brown due to oxidation. The best tasting guacamole is always made at the last minute.
Source: Robert Baradaran, chef instructor, Riverside City College Culinary Arts Academy
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