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After half years of war, Thepolarisation sees it as if Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad had succeeded, which has so far keinemarabischen despots succeeded: He can continue to reign despite hundreds of thousands of dead and 12Millionen displaced people as before – with state arbitrariness, The use of outlaw and chemical Weapons and systematischenMassenvernichtung of civilians in detention centres of regime. But did Earth’s war win? Is Syria conflict over soon? And can diegeflüchteten Syrians finally return home?
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Undoubtedly, Syrian regime has a military upper hand. Since Russia’s massive intervention in September2015, Assad’s loyal forces have been able to Oppositionzurückerobern many areas. Since US president Donald Trump only wants to defeat IS, he will eventually bust his expulsion and Anderenüberlassen Syria orwise. After all, intra-Syrian conflict is not as interested as US bombing of civilians, industrialized torture, or fate of Assad. The Kurds and few rebels who still have American Unterstützungbekommen-mind you only for fight against jihadist terror-will drop Trump once IS has disappeared from Syria. Einzigesmittelfristiges goal of USA is containment of Iran. And y believe that Inwashington can best be reached with Russia. The greater RolleMoskaus in Syria, smaller Tehran, so simple logic. Aberso Simple is not.
Syria has long been divided
In reality, Syria has long been divided. Not geographically, as we like to claim, but internally. Assad’s Syria is no longer re, country is no longer privately owned by EinesClans. Because Assad paid a high price for his power, his independence. The Syrian ruler must reward and participate in all those who help him to MilitärischenSieg – he is a prisoner of his closest allies. And Diesebetrachten Syria as prey, whose division gives m more influence, makes UndGeld.
Four actors have prevented Assad’s downfall in previous half years: Iran and Russia, Syrian Milizenführerund regime-close businessmen. They are real winners of conflict so far. Anyone who wants to know how Syria will continue under Assad must refore ask what se four claim for ir fidelity.
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Iran has gone to Syria to stay re and build country into a reliable transit state of eigenenschiitischen axis from Tehran via Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut to AnsMittelmeer. With its military and political presence, seinemwirtschaftlichen and social commitment, Iran has risen to Hegemonialmachtin of Levant – that annoys Saudi Arabia and worries Israel, Ändernwird little.
Russia, on or hand, prefers to control Syria from at. A naval base and a separate air Force base, with engepolitische and economic ties that secure Russian interests in Middle East – that’s enough for Putin. For this he needs an authoritarianally guided Staatmit effective security apparatus and centrally controllable institutions – obmit or without Assad is incidental to Moscow.
